受能源价格飙升影响，高盛集团最新预测显示，未来12个月内美国经济陷入衰退的可能性已升至30%，较此前预期上调5个百分点。
能源价格冲击叠加中东冲突引发的金融环境收紧，以及去年夏季通过的特朗普总统主要税法的刺激效应逐渐消退，促使高盛首席经济学家简·哈祖斯将基准情景下的失业率预期上调至年底前的4.6%。不过该行仍预计美联储将在9月和12月分别实施降息。
高盛同时预测，今年下半年美国GDP增速将低于趋势水平，年化增长率预计介于1.25%至1.75%之间。由于霍尔木兹海峡能源运输持续中断，高盛周一早间已上调全年油价预测。
该行指出，中东冲突可能推升全球通胀水平，并使全球GDP增速降低0.4个百分点。但在最坏情况下，对GDP的负面影响可能扩大至两到三倍。
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