Futures Market: Powell's hawkish signals dampened market confidence, with overnight LME tin closing down 0.61% at $36,105, a $220 drop from the previous session. Trading volume stood at 490 lots, while open interest rose by 2.24 million to 21.151 million. Domestically, Shanghai tin futures traded weakly overnight, with the December 2024 contract (SHFE tin 2512) closing at 285,420 yuan/ton, down 830 yuan (0.29%). LME tin inventories increased by 130 tons to 2,830 tons on 29 October.
Macro Outlook: The Fed cut rates by 25bps at 2am on 29 Oct, aligning with expectations, but Powell's cautious stance on December rate cuts triggered a brief dollar rebound. Dissenting votes from two Fed officials—one favoring a 50bps cut and another opposing any cut—highlighted policy divergence. Delays in key US data (nonfarm payrolls, CPI) due to the government shutdown caused brief stock volatility, though tech-led gains lifted the Nasdaq. The dollar index edged up, prompting tin prices to retreat.
Supply Side: Intensified raw material competition and production constraints persist. Myanmar’s Wa region remains slow to resume supply, keeping Yunnan smelters’ feedstock inventories critically low. Low-grade ore processing fees face pressure amid fierce profit negotiations between miners and smelters. While Indonesia’s mining crackdown curbs illegal output, compliant firms’ export plans may partly offset shortages. Chinese smelters’ post-maintenance recovery is hampered by feedstock shortages, with September refined tin output dropping sharply. LME inventory fluctuations and low canceled warrant ratios suggest muted overseas spot demand.
Demand Side: Traditional sectors (consumer electronics, some PV soldering) remain weak, with cautious procurement and thin order improvements. However, emerging applications—AI servers, EV electronics, and energy storage—are driving structural resilience. PV ribbon tin usage is expected to grow steadily. Declining SHFE warehouse receipts indicate gradual spot demand absorption.
Price Outlook: Cautious macro sentiment and long position unwinding may cap upside, with tin prices likely to trade weakly. LME tin resistance is seen at $36,100/ton, while SHFE tin 2512 may range between 284,000–285,000 yuan/ton. The tug-of-war between tight supply and soft demand warrants vigilance over macro-driven volatility.
(Views expressed are for reference only and not investment advice.)