预测市场的交易员们对美联储主席权力平稳过渡的信心正在减弱。
在Kalshi和Polymarket平台上，交易员正削减对凯文·沃什在5月15日杰罗姆·鲍威尔任期结束前获确认为美国央行行长的押注。Kalshi交易员目前认为沃什在该日期前获得确认的概率为38%，较昨日远高于50%的水平显著下滑。
交易员对此概率的乐观情绪已持续低迷多时。最新一轮悲观情绪源于近日央行内部紧张局势的升级。周二，检察官突然造访央行总部翻修现场，加大了对鲍威尔的调查力度。随后，特朗普总统昨日进一步表态，称不会终止司法部的调查，并威胁若鲍威尔下月主席任期届满后不从美联储董事会辞职，将将其解职。
这对沃什构成重大障碍——其提名听证会已定于4月21日举行。北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯誓言，在司法部完成对鲍威尔的调查前，将阻止任何美联储提名人的确认程序。
这一切引出一个关键问题：若美联储主席任期届满却无确认继任者，后续决策权将花落谁家？
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