GLMS SEC has released a research report stating that the computing power industry is the foundation of technology, and the firm maintains a long-term bullish outlook with deep tracking. At a time when the market still harbors concerns about long-term incremental growth, the firm recommends actively seeking out sub-sectors experiencing value expansion and benefiting from increased capital expenditure allocation, with the core investment theme continuing to be "Speed + Power." The firm also advises focusing on investment opportunities in domestic computing power, semiconductor equipment, memory, and AI-enabled end-user devices. The main views of GLMS SEC are as follows:
So, from the current standpoint, how does the firm view the computing power opportunities for the coming year? The firm believes that for 2026, it is crucial to closely observe the pace at which Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) and large model developers achieve commercial closure, in order to grasp the overall industry beta. Concurrently, investors should actively seek sub-sectors where value is expanding and capital expenditure increments are being directed, adhering to the core theme of "Speed + Power."
From capital expenditure to ROI calculations, the report interprets the core variables of computing power. The firm posits that computing power demand primarily depends on the number of Tokens and Capital Expenditure (Capex). Among these, the Token count (including metrics like Daily Active Users) mainly reflects real-time computing power demand, while Capex reflects cloud providers' future expectations for computing power. Some cloud providers with strong commercial closure, such as Google, have already established a positive cycle of "Expenditure → Computing Power → Tokens → Revenue → Re-investment." The firm has primarily calculated the Capex/Operating Cash Flow/ROI for major cloud providers to assess their capacity for sustainable investment and their ability to achieve a closed-loop AI business model.
To capture the incremental opportunities in AI, regarding overseas computing power, the firm continues its investment strategy centered on "Speed + Power." 1) Speed - Optical: Seize the trend of optics moving into server racks, capturing the performance trajectory of optical modules, the shortage wave for optical chips, and the increasing penetration rate of silicon photonics. Pay attention to industry trends like Optical Circuit Switches (OCS) driven by hyper-node technology. PCB: Material and equipment upgrades are the core focus. NVIDIA's introduction of new PCB solutions, utilizing M9-grade substrates, HVLP4 copper foil, and quartz fiber fabric to construct orthogonal backplane solutions, represents an upgrade trend that simultaneously drives advancements in materials and equipment. 2) Power: The continuous increase in power density per card and per rack imposes new requirements on power architecture, making liquid cooling a standard feature in data centers.
Regarding domestic computing power: A breakthrough is expected in 2025, with the potential for rapid growth in 2026. On the demand side, domestic large models are accelerating their catch-up efforts, and cloud providers' capital expenditure outlook is positive. On the supply side, domestic advanced process technologies are evolving from isolated breakthroughs to widespread adoption. With both supply and demand strengthening, domestic computing power manufacturers are entering a breakthrough year.
Other areas: For semiconductors, focus on the memory super-cycle empowered by AI, with equipment benefiting from expansion by original manufacturers. For consumer electronics, monitor AI-enabled end-user devices and track the explorations by industry leaders such as Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, Vivo, OpenAI, and Meta.
Risk warnings: Uncertainty in the development of the AI industry; AI capital expenditure falling short of expectations; Downstream demand being weaker than anticipated; Limitations inherent in ROI calculations.