蜜雪集团(02097)今日盘中大跌5.12%，引起了市场的广泛关注。
消息面上，摩根大通发表研究报告，指出蜜雪集团多年高速增长阶段即将结束，管理层预示今年将调整步伐。报告认为，公司未来12个月将面临外部补贴政策退场及内部结构性挑战，正处于从增长型转向价值型的阶段。
具体而言，蜜雪集团与“幸运咖”之间的内部竞争正在升温，加上门店扩张速度放缓及毛利率压力，摩根大通因此下调蜜雪集团2026及2027年盈利预测9%至14%。该行预计公司今年毛利率将收窄1.1个百分点至30%，并面临成本上涨的风险。基于以上判断，摩根大通将蜜雪集团的评级由“增持”大幅下调至“减持”，目标价由521港元削减至270港元。这一系列负面展望直接影响了投资者信心，导致股价承压下行。
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