Morgan Stanley: Tesla's "Flywheel Effect" Nears Activation, Autonomous Taxis Set as Next Growth Engine

Stock News
Mar 19

According to a research report from Morgan Stanley, the successful launch of Tesla's autonomous taxi business represents a significant growth catalyst currently undervalued by the market. Analyst Andrew Percoco expressed optimism regarding the production of Tesla's autonomous taxi and the Cybercab model, stating that this business has the potential to create a powerful "flywheel effect" within the Tesla ecosystem. Percoco noted, "Every additional mile of unsupervised driving by the autonomous taxi fleet continuously optimizes the underlying self-driving model, thereby accelerating the achievement of unsupervised full self-driving for personal vehicles. This progress will drive increased adoption of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) package, which in turn will boost vehicle demand and enhance cash flow generation. Amid rising capital expenditures and near-term cash consumption, a breakthrough in personal FSD technology is seen as a key lever to revitalize vehicle sales and margins, providing funding support for Tesla's long-term strategy in physical artificial intelligence." Although Tesla is deliberately proceeding cautiously with its rollout in Austin, this approach helps the company refine its deployment strategy, laying the groundwork for rapid scaling to 7 additional cities planned for the first half of this year. Tesla anticipates that the transition time from supervised to fully unsupervised operation will be significantly shortened in new cities. Crucially, the Morgan Stanley analyst team believes that Tesla's autonomous taxi service holds a structural cost advantage due to its vertical integration of vehicle manufacturing and fleet operations, including service, preparation, charging, and insurance. Percoco emphasized, "Using the Model Y as an example, we estimate its comprehensive cost to be approximately $0.81 per mile, excluding tolls. This compares to roughly $1.71 per mile for the ride-hailing industry and about $1.43 per mile for Waymo. With the mass production and scaling of the dedicated Cybercab model, the cost per mile is projected to potentially fall further to $0.37 by 2035."

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