China Index Academy states that looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the housing market's bottoming trend is expected to persist.
In the medium term, the impact of the August 28 new policy—through lengthening the capital occupation cycle and altering real estate developers' land acquisition and investment behavior—will gradually become apparent starting from 2027. The land auction performance during the year-end land supply peak and the implementation of local detailed rules are important observation windows.
In the long term, the accelerated improvement of foundational industry systems will help optimize the market supply structure and promote the industry's steady transformation. In the short term, some enterprises are inclined to accelerate obtaining permits and entering the sales phase to shorten the capital occupation cycle. Combined with the September 29 mortgage interest subsidy policy and the low base effect from the previous year, this is expected to drive a further narrowing of the decline in real estate developers' sales.
Performance: January-September Sales Decline of 100 Real Estate Developers Flat Compared to January-August
From January to September 2026, the total sales of 100 real estate developers amounted to 2,259.72 billion yuan, with the year-on-year decline flat compared to January-August. The property market remains in its off-season, with only core cities still showing support driven by the entry of high-quality projects into the market. Key real estate developers saw their sales performance decline slightly widen. The 100 real estate developers' managed sales totaled 1,785.15 billion yuan, while equity sales amounted to 1,568.97 billion yuan.
In terms of specific enterprises, from January to September, companies such as China Overseas Property, China Resources Land, and Beijing Urban Construction achieved year-on-year sales growth. These real estate developers seized the structural opportunities of "good houses plus good cities," converting the divergent market into sales performance through precise supply and product strength. Meanwhile, in an environment where delivery anxiety persists and demand divergence is significant, state-owned backgrounds bring lower financing costs, delivery certainty, and homebuyer trust, with outstanding project premium and absorption capabilities, making it easier for real estate developers to capture structural demand.
Chart: Average cumulative full-caliber sales and growth rate of 100 real estate developers from January 2022 to September 2026. Chart: Monthly full-caliber sales of 100 real estate developers from January 2021 to September 2026 (Unit: 100 million yuan). Note: Sales figures used in the analysis refer to full-caliber sales unless otherwise specified. Data source: China Index Data CREIS.
Tier Count: After Deep Industry Reshuffling, Signals of Real Estate Developers Transitioning to High-Quality Development Become Clearer
From January to September 2026, there were 5 real estate developers with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, one fewer than the same period last year; there were 51 real estate developers with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan, eight fewer than the same period. From the changes in real estate developer sales tiers from 2023 to January-September 2026, the number of real estate developers in the 100-billion and 10-billion tiers has shown a continuous contraction trend, with the overall sales echelon shifting downward, reflecting that the era of high-scale expansion in the industry has come to an end.
The decline in the number of 100-billion real estate developers during each January-September period from 2024 to 2026 has already slowed noticeably, and the market position of leading real estate developers has become increasingly solid. Over the past few years, the industry has undergone deep reshuffling and elimination, and the signal of real estate developers shifting from high-scale expansion to high-quality, steady operations has become increasingly clear.
Chart: Number of 100-billion and 10-billion real estate developers from 2023 to January-September 2026.
Hot-Selling Projects: Driven by Demand-Side Policies in Core Cities, Multiple Projects Achieve Hot Sales by Leveraging Location and Product Strength
Driven by demand-side support policies in core cities at the end of August, some projects in key cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Wuhan achieved hot sales by leveraging advantages in location and product strength. Hot-selling projects mostly benefited from the following factors: First, concentrated ignition during the policy window. Core cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu concentratedly introduced new property policies at the end of August, boosting market confidence, with a wave of demand release in September. Second, the value of core locations became apparent. Hot-selling projects are mostly located in urban cores or high-potential areas with strong industrial and population agglomeration support. Meanwhile, some project locations have seen scarce new project supply in recent years, and the scarcity of land parcels enhanced project value. Third, outstanding product strength. Hot-selling projects are products under new regulations with higher usable floor area ratios. Multiple projects adopted elevated slab designs to reconstruct community three-dimensional spaces, improving living experience, and formed differentiated selling points through sunken courtyard clubs, Song-style gardens, and smart residential systems. Fourth, brand credit and delivery certainty significantly enhanced homebuyer confidence. Central and state-owned enterprise endorsements, early club deliveries, and mature community operations effectively hedged market concerns about delivery risks.
Table: Recent hot-selling property projects. Data source: China Index Academy comprehensive compilation.
Outlook: September 29 Mortgage Interest Subsidy Policy Will Strongly Support Demand Release, Expected to Drive Narrowing of Real Estate Developers' Sales Decline
On the policy front, the central government continues its "stabilize the real estate market" tone. The September 28 State Council executive meeting once again emphasized the introduction of policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote employment and income growth, indicating that stabilizing the real estate market is an important part of stabilizing the macroeconomy, and short-term policies will continue to intensify.
On September 29, the Ministry of Finance, together with the People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration, issued a document. For the first time, the central government provided interest subsidies for individual housing loans. Through a fiscal "interest rate gap compensation" approach—without touching loan contract rates or compressing banks' net interest margins—limited fiscal funds are directed toward genuine self-occupation demand, directly reducing the actual capital cost for eligible first-home buyers by approximately 1 percentage point, effectively alleviating homebuyers' monthly payment pressure.
Real estate system reform is being implemented, with full efforts to advance the implementation of three foundational systems. On August 28, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and other departments issued "1+2+5" policy documents, comprehensively restructuring foundational systems for real estate development, financing, and sales, and accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development.
On September 18, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, at a press conference, clearly stated that real estate has seen "two transformations": first, major changes in the supply-demand relationship of the real estate market; second, real estate has entered the stock era. From the perspective of the new model for real estate development, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development for the first time clarified the "1234" connotations: "1" is firmly grasping the fundamental point of enabling the people to live in peace; "2" is improving the two systems of affordable housing and market housing; "3" refers to the three systems of project company system, lead bank system, and completed housing sales system; "4" is promoting the linkage of the four elements of "people, housing, land, and money." At the same time, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized that it will "make full efforts to promote the implementation of the three foundational systems for real estate." Current policies have left certain space for local governments to implement city-specific measures, and how specifically to execute still awaits clarification of local implementation rules. Cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are exploring completed housing sales and raising pre-sale thresholds.
On September 24, Beijing took the lead in implementing detailed rules, clarifying that projects that acquired land before August 28 but have not obtained construction planning permits will in principle follow the new pre-sale policy. At the same time, certain flexibility was set for each district, with transition period arrangements provided. It proposed that if district governments can ensure timely completion and delivery, pre-sales can proceed under original pre-sale conditions before the end of 2027, but mortgage disbursement conditions will follow the new policy. It clarified that deposits generally shall not exceed 1% of the total housing price, and that for projects announced after August 28, land payments can be made in installments, with no less than 50% of the total price paid within 30 days, and the remainder paid in full within two years, without interest.
Shanghai quickly followed up with detailed implementation rules on September 28. The overall framework is basically consistent with Beijing, with more detailed clarification on pre-sale management for land parcels that have been announced for transfer but not yet transacted. The deposit collection ratio shall not exceed 3% of the total purchase price. It clarified that construction planning permits can be applied for using land transfer contracts, which helps accelerate project construction progress. Guangzhou is highly aligned with Beijing and Shanghai on key aspects such as pre-sale thresholds, transition arrangements for in-progress projects, pre-sale fund supervision, mortgage disbursement timing, and the lead bank system, while showing明显的 local differentiation in deposit caps, conditions for releasing funds from supervision, land supply, and supporting policies.
In terms of new homes, according to preliminary statistics from China Index Academy, in the first three quarters of 2026, the transaction area of newly built commodity residential properties in 100 key cities declined by approximately 10% year-on-year. Specifically, first-quarter sales declined by 21% year-on-year, a relatively significant pullback; in the second quarter, as the base lowered and demand-side policies in core cities continued to optimize, transactions remained generally stable, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to 3%. Entering the third quarter, in the traditional off-season months of July-August, new home transaction areas in key cities declined both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, falling by 1% and 6% respectively year-on-year. In September, the year-on-year decline continued, with preliminary statistics from China Index Academy showing that new residential sales area in key cities declined by approximately 7% year-on-year in September, and the third quarter overall declined by approximately 5% year-on-year.
In terms of the land market, the third quarter continued the characteristics of "shrinking volume and improving quality," with transaction scale continuing to contract. In August, high-total-price land parcels in core cities drove a noticeable increase in transfer revenue, while in September it turned to decline again year-on-year. According to China Index Data, in the third quarter (as of September 27), driven by transactions of quality land parcels in hot cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen in August, residential land transfer revenue in 300 cities declined by 4.6% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing significantly compared to the second quarter, while transaction area still declined by 24.3% year-on-year. In September alone, affected by the slowdown in land supply pace and real estate developers becoming more cautious in bidding after the August 28 new policy, land market transactions declined. From September 1-27, planned construction area of residential land transactions in 300 cities was 29.82 million square meters, with land transfer revenue of 115.5 billion yuan, declining by 37.4% and 29.0% respectively year-on-year. The average premium rate for residential land in 300 cities in the third quarter declined overall, standing at 6.0% from September 1-27, down 1.4 percentage points from August, with most cities completing transactions at base price or low premium.