Global markets are increasingly diverging from historical precedents amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran. A month ago, when hostilities broke out, many institutional investors widely anticipated a swift resolution to the geopolitical event and bet on a rapid recovery in equity markets. This outlook was largely based on past experiences. Data from Deutsche Bank AG’s strategy team indicates that, historically, the S&P 500 has taken an average of about 16 trading days to bottom out following geopolitical shocks, followed by a recovery over roughly 109 days. However, this average is significantly influenced by the extreme case following the 1973 Arab oil embargo, when the S&P 500 took more than five and a half years to fully rebound. So far, market movements have begun to deviate from this pattern. Last Friday marked the 20th trading day since the conflict began, and since the close on February 27, the S&P 500 has fallen approximately 7.4%, exceeding the historical average decline of 6.1% after past geopolitical conflicts, suggesting a more profound impact this time. Although markets saw a brief "buy-the-dip" rebound early Monday after U.S. President Trump signaled progress in negotiations, the gains were not sustained, indicating that investor confidence remains fragile. From a liquidity perspective, institutional investors have significantly reduced their risk exposure. Data from Deutsche Bank AG show that active investors are currently underweight equities, with room for further reductions. Meanwhile, systematic strategy funds, including Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), have lowered their equity allocations to below neutral levels for the first time since July. If markets fail to rebound or volatility increases further, these funds could continue to reduce their positions. Market sentiment indicators also reflect rising tension. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the "fear index," closed above 30 on Monday, a level typically seen as a sign of high market alertness. In terms of index performance, the S&P 500 fell 0.39% on Monday, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.73%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.11%.