China Index Academy data reveals that as the national real estate market continues its adjustment phase in 2026, first-tier cities are leveraging their competitive advantages and sustained policy support to move out of the downturn ahead of others. According to transaction monitoring and the 100-city price index, new home sales in first-tier cities rose 14% year-on-year in July, while cumulative sales from January to July dipped just 0.7%. Meanwhile, existing home transactions climbed 9.5% for the month and 6.6% cumulatively over the seven-month period, signaling a broad stabilization trend even as inter-city disparities remain pronounced.

On the policy front, first-tier cities have been rolling out coordinated measures throughout the year. Shanghai introduced its "Seven Measures" in February, Shenzhen followed with purchase restriction adjustments in late April, and Guangzhou unveiled its "Eight Measures." These policies focus on lowering social security contribution requirements, optimizing purchase quotas for multi-child families, raising provident fund loan ceilings, and easing trade-in qualifications, collectively reducing homebuying barriers. In August, Beijing further relaxed purchase limits, housing gift rules, and provident fund policies to ease entry barriers and financial pressure for certain buyer groups. Shanghai subsequently issued its "Eight New Measures," refining provident fund withdrawals, down payment terms for second homes outside the outer ring road, and subsidies for trade-in purchases.

New home sales data from China Index Academy monitoring shows July transaction volumes in first-tier cities grew 14% year-on-year, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen recording increases of 2%, 17%, 2%, and 42% respectively. Cumulatively, new home sales across these four cities reached 15.77 million square meters in the first seven months, a marginal 0.7% decline year-on-year.

In the existing home segment, Beijing and Shanghai continued to lead growth. July saw 14,000 and 20,000 second-hand homes transacted in the two cities respectively, up 10% and 22% year-on-year even against a high comparison base. Both cities have now posted five consecutive months of year-on-year growth, with cumulative January-July volumes hitting five-year highs. Shenzhen's existing home transactions rose 3.0% year-on-year in July, though the growth rate narrowed from the prior month, while Guangzhou saw a 7% year-on-year decline, making it the only first-tier city with falling second-hand home sales.

Price trends show growing divergence between new and existing homes. According to the 100-city price index, new home prices in first-tier cities maintained structural increases in July, with Shanghai leading month-on-month gains while Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou posted modest upticks. Conversely, listing prices for existing homes fell 0.25% month-on-month on average, with Shanghai bucking the trend with gains while Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou all recorded declines.

Specifically, new home prices in first-tier cities rose 0.63% month-on-month and 5.40% year-on-year in July. Shanghai led with a 0.96% monthly gain and 8.43% annual increase, followed by Shenzhen at 0.43% monthly and 2.12% annually, Guangzhou at 0.25% monthly and 1.82% annually, and Beijing at 0.16% monthly and 1.58% annually.

For existing home listing prices, first-tier cities fell 0.25% month-on-month in July, with the decline widening by 0.09 percentage points. Shanghai stood out with a 0.09% monthly increase, marking five consecutive months of gains, though prices remain 5.47% below year-ago levels. Beijing saw prices drop 0.57% month-on-month and 8.72% year-on-year, Guangzhou fell 0.49% monthly and 7.81% annually, and Shenzhen declined 0.11% monthly and 4.86% year-on-year. Overall, Shanghai is showing the earliest signs of bottoming out in the existing home segment, Shenzhen is experiencing modest fluctuations, and price declines in Beijing and Guangzhou have narrowed notably compared to the second half of last year.

Inventory levels across first-tier cities continue to shrink due to constrained new supply. July inventory fell 1.8% month-on-month and 12.4% year-on-year. Shenzhen led the decline with a 7.3% monthly drop and 22.7% annual reduction, followed by Guangzhou at 1.4% monthly and 10.6% annually, and Beijing at 1.3% monthly and 21% year-on-year. Shanghai's inventory edged down 1.0% monthly but rose 0.3% year-on-year due to sustained new supply levels.

Sales clearance periods continue to improve across all four cities. Based on average sales velocity over the past six months, Shanghai's clearance period stood at just 8 months at end-July, down 0.4 months month-on-month and 0.1 months year-on-year. Shenzhen followed at 10.2 months, down 1.4 months monthly and 3.3 months annually. Guangzhou recorded 15.2 months, down 0.4 months and 2.3 months respectively, while Beijing reached 16.9 months, down 0.6 months monthly and 4.8 months year-on-year.

Looking ahead, the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" marketing season is expected to prompt developers to ramp up launches and promotions. Combined with recent policy optimizations in Beijing and Shanghai, market activity could pick up. However, divergence between regions and between new and existing homes is likely to persist. On the transaction front, new supply, promotional campaigns, and policy effects may drive periodic rebounds in new home sales, with Shanghai and Shenzhen showing relatively stronger resilience, while Beijing and Guangzhou remain dependent on policy transmission and project availability. For existing homes, Beijing and Shanghai are well-positioned to sustain high transaction volumes given smooth trade-in chains, whereas Guangzhou may continue facing downward pressure. On pricing, new homes are likely to maintain structural increases driven by premium project launches, while existing home listing prices may fluctuate modestly. Should market activity improve and listing volumes stabilize during the peak season, price declines could narrow further, though sustained stabilization ultimately hinges on genuine improvements in homebuyer expectations and supply-demand dynamics.