Abstract

Sibanye Stillwater will report quarterly results on February 20, 2026 after market close; this preview compiles the latest financials and market expectations to frame revenue, margins, and earnings dynamics alongside investor sentiment for the period from January 1, 2026 to February 13, 2026.

Market Forecast

Market commentary for the current quarter points to a softer top line and pressured profitability for Sibanye Stillwater, with consensus implying year-over-year declines in revenue and adjusted EPS amid subdued PGM prices and operational realignments. Company forecasting detail for this quarter was not provided in the latest dataset; in the absence of guidance figures, we note that expectations generally lean toward a contraction in revenue and margin compression relative to last year.

The main business remains diversified across metals and recycling activities, with revenue concentrated in refining and mining operations; the outlook is dominated by commodity pricing trends and cost inflation dynamics. Among business lines, nickel refining is positioned as the most sensitive to near-term price swings and policy developments; however, specific revenue and YoY forecast data for this quarter were not available in the dataset.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Sibanye Stillwater recorded a GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of $1.80 billion, with a gross profit margin of 30.11% and a net profit margin of -6.56%; revenue and adjusted EPS detail were not available in the returned dataset, preventing a full four-metric comparison.

A notable feature of the period was the solid gross margin print despite the bottom-line loss, indicating that non-operating items and below-gross-line charges weighed on net profit. Operationally, the company’s revenue mix was led by nickel refining activities, followed by gold mining and U.S. PGM recycling, though YoY figures for each were not included in the dataset.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business trajectory

Sibanye Stillwater’s core portfolio spans PGM mining, gold operations, and recycling/refining activities, which collectively anchor group revenue and cash generation. In the near term, market pricing for platinum, palladium, and rhodium will be decisive for revenue trajectory and gross margins. The company’s realized basket price will likely reflect persistent palladium softness and uneven platinum demand, which tends to compress margins even where operational cost controls are effective. Cost structures remain sensitive to energy prices, labor agreements, and throughput rates; therefore, any incremental curtailment or restructuring could influence unit costs and near-term EBITDA conversion. The gross margin performance in the last quarter indicates that core operations retained pricing power in certain areas, but translation to net income was hindered by charges below the gross line, which could normalize if restructuring and fair-value adjustments abate.

Most promising business and catalysts

Recycling and refining activities, particularly those linked to U.S. PGM recovery and nickel streams, appear positioned to stabilize cash flows given shorter cycle times and the potential for responsive feedstock management. If nickel pricing in the quarter steadies after prior volatility, nickel refining margins could exhibit incremental improvement, though the swing factor will be feed mix quality and contractual economics on tolling vs merchant volumes. The U.S. PGM recycling unit can benefit from improved catalytic converter collection and processing spreads if scrap flows recover, supporting revenue resilience independent of mine production variability. Any incremental improvement in palladium and platinum spot prices during the quarter would have an outsized effect on refining and recycling spreads, offering margin uplift even in a tepid macro environment.

Stock price drivers this quarter

Share performance around the print is likely to be driven by realized PGM basket prices, commentary on cost trajectories, and any updates on operational adjustments or capital allocation. Investors will pay close attention to management’s tone on restructuring charges and impairment risks following a bottom-line loss in the prior quarter; reduced one-off charges could shift net income directionally closer to operating profitability. Guidance on volumes, particularly at key PGM operations and recycling throughput, will inform revenue sensitivity to commodity prices. Liquidity and balance sheet commentary, including covenant headroom and potential disposals or partnerships, will also shape valuation perceptions in a market that has become more discriminating toward levered miners during commodity downcycles.

Analyst Opinions

Analyst and institutional commentary during the review window tilted cautious, with a majority leaning bearish due to persistent palladium and platinum price headwinds and uncertainty around restructuring benefits timing. Several notes emphasize that despite a respectable gross margin print, the earnings bridge remains pressured by below-the-line items and that visibility on net profit recovery is limited absent a rebound in PGM prices. Cautious views also point to potential volatility in nickel-linked earnings and the challenge of offsetting lower mined PGM margins with recycling gains. On balance, preview comments suggest investors should expect subdued adjusted EPS alongside tighter discipline on capex and costs; any positive surprise is expected to come from better-than-feared price realizations or lower-than-expected non-recurring charges.