On March 10, WTI crude oil opened with a sharp drop of 10%, falling to $85.52 per barrel. As of 6:13 Beijing time, the decline narrowed to 7.76%, with prices at $87.412 per barrel.
In the precious metals sector, gold and silver continued to adjust. Spot gold retreated to $5,130, down 0.08% for the day, while spot silver fell 0.13% to $86.86 per ounce.
According to reports, on March 9 local time, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the war between the United States and Iran may conclude soon. In a telephone interview, Trump stated, "I believe the conflict is largely over, almost done. They no longer have a navy, communication systems, or an air force." He also mentioned that the situation has progressed "much faster" than his initial estimate of a four to five-week timeframe.
Trump further commented that vessels are currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz, though he is still considering "controlling" this crucial maritime passage.
Separately, U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette noted on March 9 that the U.S. government is "discussing" a coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves to address current energy market conditions. Meanwhile, European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis stated during a Eurogroup press conference that it is premature to discuss specific policy measures in response to the Middle East situation. He added that necessary actions, including the use of strategic oil reserves, are prepared if needed.
According to data from PolyMarket, market expectations suggest only a 23% likelihood that the U.S.-Iran conflict will conclude by the end of March, with a 46% chance of resolution by the end of April.
From the perspective of Li Jie, a senior energy and chemical researcher at CCB Futures, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked before the conflict ends, most major oil-producing countries in the Middle East could face involuntary production cuts. J.P. Morgan estimates indicate that, following a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq's crude oil storage capacity would last only six days, Kuwait's approximately two weeks, and the UAE and Qatar's around three weeks. Should the conflict persist for more than five weeks, Saudi Arabia's crude output may also be affected.