Goldman Sachs published a report on September 26 estimating the impact of restricting U.S. diesel exports on fuel prices. Under its hypothetical full ban scenario, exports diverted to the domestic market could first push diesel prices lower; if restrictions persist until storage space tightens, refinery production cuts could then drive gasoline prices higher.

Early Stage: Export Diesel Flows Into Domestic Inventories

Rising U.S. diesel prices provided the backdrop for discussions on export restrictions. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that the national average diesel retail price was $6.529 per gallon in the week of September 21. The agency estimated this month that U.S. distillate inventories would fall below 100 million barrels in September and noted that tight global supply is prompting the United States to increase exports. The Goldman Sachs report estimated that U.S. net diesel exports have risen from about 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025 to about 1.6 million barrels per day in recent months. Based on this, the report assumed that if exports were fully banned while refineries temporarily maintained production, diesel originally destined for overseas markets would enter the U.S. market. In the early stage when storage space is still available, each week the ban continues would put downward pressure of about $0.25 per gallon on the U.S. average diesel retail price. This figure is the model's estimated week-by-week price pressure, not a price decline that has already occurred.

Diesel is mainly produced along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Goldman Sachs believes more local diesel could be redirected to other regions, but transportation arrangements would take time; its model also assumes that a Jones Act waiver allowing foreign vessels to carry U.S. domestic diesel would be extended.

Later Stage: Tight Storage Tanks Could Force Refineries to Cut Production

The longer the ban lasts, the more likely supply and demand relationships are to change. Based on an inventory build rate of about 1.6 million barrels per day, Goldman Sachs calculated that U.S. diesel storage space could theoretically run out after 9 to 10 weeks. The report also noted that available space along the Gulf Coast is even more limited, and refineries may cut production before tanks are full, so this timing is not a forecast of when the cap would actually be reached.

Diesel, gasoline and jet fuel are produced jointly by refineries. If diesel cannot be exported and inventories cannot continue to increase, falling diesel prices could compress refinery profits and prompt refineries to reduce utilization. Under Goldman Sachs' scenario in which storage space is full, U.S. refinery throughput would fall by about 2.1 million barrels per day, and daily gasoline output would fall by about 1.25 million barrels; after that, each additional week the ban continues would put upward pressure of about $0.30 per gallon on U.S. gasoline retail prices. The report believes jet fuel supply would also be affected by refinery production cuts.

European Diesel Prices May Come Under Pressure

Export restrictions would also change supply in markets outside the United States. Goldman Sachs estimated that each week the ban continues would put upward pressure of about $3 per barrel, or slightly less than 2%, on European diesel wholesale prices. Europe and Latin America are important destinations for U.S. diesel exports; if those two regions turn to other suppliers, the impact could also spread to broader markets. The report calculated that releasing European diesel strategic reserves could offset about half of the upward price pressure.

After restrictions are lifted, Goldman Sachs expects U.S. diesel prices to move back toward international market levels, with U.S. prices therefore facing upward pressure and overseas prices potentially easing. The above results are all based on Goldman Sachs' assumptions of a full ban, inventory changes and refinery responses. On the policy front, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said publicly on September 23 that the United States would not stop diesel exports and that he did not expect a full ban to be implemented. Goldman Sachs also listed export restrictions as a possible scenario rather than its base-case forecast.