During the past third quarter, gold prices traced a path of rising first and then falling. Wind data shows that from July 1 to August 25, the international gold price (using the London spot gold price as an example) fluctuated upward, gaining 16.21%, and on August 25 it touched US$4,697.07 per ounce during intraday trading, reaching the highest price of the third quarter, but after that the international gold price began to decline. Overall, the international gold price recorded a gain of 3.74% in the third quarter. As of October 9, when the reporter filed the story, the international gold price stood at US$4,183.82 per ounce, with an intraday gain of 1.2%.

It is worth noting that while the international gold price has been fluctuating widely, global central banks are still continuing to allocate gold. The latest data from the People's Bank of China shows that as of the end of September 2026, China's gold reserves stood at 77.47 million ounces, an increase of 740,000 ounces from 76.73 million ounces at the end of August, marking 23 consecutive months of increases. The latest data released by the World Gold Council also shows that in July this year, central banks maintained their gold purchasing stance, with net purchases of 23 tons of gold. As of July, central banks reported total gold purchases of about 130 tons this year, compared with about 160 tons in the same period last year.

What impact does continued gold buying by global central banks have on the gold price? Yang Changlong, a senior investment adviser at Shaanxi Jufeng Investment Information Consulting Co., Ltd., told the reporter that global central bank gold purchases are a medium- to long-term "positive slow variable" affecting the gold price and provide a relatively solid bottom support for the international gold price. Song Xiangqing, vice president of the China Commercial Economics Society, said in an interview with the reporter that global central bank gold purchases are not a direct short-term driver of gold price increases, but rather play the role of a "ballast" and a floor. Central banks allocate gold for purposes such as reserve diversification and usually do not aim for short-term trading profits. This sustained, price-insensitive rigid demand is changing the medium- to long-term supply and demand structure of gold, raising the overall operating center of the gold price and compressing room for declines. Short-term gold prices are still mainly affected by factors such as the U.S. dollar trend, real U.S. Treasury yields, and speculative capital flows, so a divergence often appears in which "central banks are buying while gold prices are still adjusting."

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, how is the gold price trend expected to perform? Yang Changlong believes that global central banks' physical gold demand remains relatively strong, and combined with ongoing international geopolitical uncertainty, the gold price is expected to gradually stabilize in the fourth quarter and return to an upward channel. However, Song Xiangqing expects that in the fourth quarter the gold price will most likely maintain a pattern of high volatility and intensified bull-bear contention, making it difficult for an overall one-way trend to emerge. On the one hand, global central banks are expected to continue buying gold, forming bottom support for the gold price; on the other hand, the gold price trend is still affected by Federal Reserve monetary policy. If the Federal Reserve keeps high interest rates longer than expected and the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields remain strong, the gold price will still face pressure. Only when market expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy gradually shift toward rate cuts will the gold price be expected to open up room for gains. Overall, the gold price may be more inclined toward range-bound trading, with volatility clearly amplified during the process.