An Israeli airstrike on Iran has escalated tensions, marking a significant geopolitical event that could reshape the global economic landscape.

Gold and oil prices are poised for a potential surge. If crude oil prices skyrocket above $100 per barrel, the consequences could be severe. Energy-dependent regions like China and Europe may face substantial inflationary pressures, signaling a major turning point.

Why has Israel chosen to strike Iran at this moment?

The key question is not why Israel acted, but why Iran—despite appearing to yield to U.S. demands—was targeted. Iran had already shown flexibility on nuclear issues, and former President Trump noted "progress" in negotiations.

Such actions are often tactical moves aimed at gaining leverage in future talks. By striking Iran, Israel seeks to draw the U.S. deeper into the conflict, accelerating efforts to pressure Iran into complete and rapid denuclearization.

This move by Israel is strategically calculated. Iran has never fully severed ties with the West; instead, it has used the threat of nuclear capability as a bargaining chip rather than an immediate danger.

U.S. support for Israel’s actions stems from its role as a proxy in the Middle East. By intervening in Iran, the U.S. aims to assert dominance in the region, driven by significant strategic interests.

First, subduing Iran could trigger a spike in oil prices. If Iran’s oil exports through the Persian Gulf are disrupted, crude prices could soar to $100–150 per barrel. This would benefit U.S. defense and petrochemical sectors. As a net energy exporter with abundant shale gas reserves, the U.S. would profit immensely, potentially alleviating its national debt burden.

Second, neutralizing Iran—a key regional adversary—would reinforce the petrodollar system, cementing the U.S. dollar’s global hegemony.

Consider the implications of soaring oil prices: higher crude costs mean more U.S. dollars are circulated globally per gallon of oil, strengthening the dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency. This, in turn, bolsters U.S. financial dominance.

With mounting national debt and concerns over dollar depreciation, the U.S. may see such a conflict as a means to prolong its financial influence and sustain existing economic frameworks.

These underlying motives explain U.S. support for this proxy war.

Looking ahead, direct U.S. involvement in Iran would escalate the conflict, heightening global systemic risks. Oil prices could climb further, gold might exceed $5,500 per ounce, and global equity and bond markets would likely decline as investors price in heightened uncertainty.

Objectively, Iran’s negotiations with the U.S., Israel, and China have been poorly managed. This situation underscores a timeless principle: peace achieved through struggle endures, while peace sought through compromise often fails.