Abstract

Celanese will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 17, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to revenue of about $2.26 billion and EPS of roughly $0.91 as investors weigh acetyl margin pressure, Engineered Materials execution, and deleveraging progress following the Micromax divestment.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest compiled forecasts, Celanese is expected to generate revenue of approximately $2.26 billion this quarter, implying a year-over-year decline of 4.78%, alongside estimated EPS of $0.91, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 24.14% and EBIT around $258.98 million, down 8.39% year-over-year. Forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit or net margin were not provided in the collected data and are therefore not included here.

Across the core businesses last quarter, Engineered Materials led with $1.38 billion in revenue while Acetyl Intermediates delivered $1.06 billion, and analysts anticipate continued margin pressure in acetyls with a steadier performance from Engineered Materials. The segment with the best near-term potential is Engineered Materials, supported by project execution and pricing actions; it generated $1.38 billion in the prior quarter, while year-over-year segment growth was not disclosed in the compiled dataset.

Last Quarter Review

Celanese reported last quarter revenue of $2.42 billion, a gross profit margin of 21.54%, a GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of $1.36 billion (net profit margin of -56.10%), and adjusted EPS of $1.34, down 45.08% year-over-year.

A notable feature of the quarter was the large gap between GAAP and adjusted results, with a sharp sequential deterioration in GAAP net profit (quarter-on-quarter change of -799.48%), overshadowing otherwise positive adjusted profitability. By business line, Engineered Materials contributed $1.38 billion and Acetyl Intermediates contributed $1.06 billion, with a small consolidation offset; segment-level year-over-year comparisons were not provided in the compiled materials.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Engineered Materials performance and pricing discipline

Engineered Materials was Celanese’s largest contributor to sales last quarter at $1.38 billion, and it remains a central lever for earnings quality this quarter. Analyst commentary indicates that project execution is a key driver for this business, with expectations that select high-impact initiatives can support mix and pricing resilience even as broader demand remains uneven. The anticipated EPS decline to roughly $0.91 year-over-year reflects a number of pressures across the portfolio, yet Engineered Materials appears positioned to provide relative stability within the company’s mix.

In the near term, three considerations matter most for Engineered Materials: pricing discipline, product mix, and end-market cadence across transportation, electronics, industrial and consumer. Pricing actions taken over the past year continue to work through the portfolio, and favorable mix could partially offset volume variability. Analysts have highlighted that some improvement from Engineered Materials is plausible as programs mature, though they also note that any uplift must offset the revenue and earnings foregone from the Micromax divestment. Operationally, maintaining utilization balance and inventory discipline should help protect margins in a quarter where top-line pressure persists, and the gap between GAAP and adjusted metrics last quarter underscores the importance of monitoring non-core items that can distort headline profitability.

A practical read-through for this quarter is that Engineered Materials may again out-earn Acetyl Intermediates on a risk-adjusted basis. Sales may not accelerate meaningfully given the forecast for total revenue to decline 4.78% year-over-year, but steady execution could defend contribution margins. This segment’s performance will likely be scrutinized for signs of sequential stabilization or incremental expansion in spread over variable costs, given cost-control programs and product rationalization. Investors will pay particularly close attention to whether the contribution trend in Engineered Materials can help buffer consolidated EBIT, which is forecast at about $258.98 million, down 8.39% year-over-year.

Acetyls: margin pressure and throughput sensitivity

The acetyl value chain remains the principal swing factor for Celanese’s near-term earnings trajectory. Analysts expect continued margin pressure in acetyls this quarter, citing an unfavorable backdrop that includes high energy costs, weak demand in pockets of the value chain, and oversupply. This aligns with the forecasted step-down in consolidated EPS to approximately $0.91 and EBIT to roughly $258.98 million, with a revenue decline to near $2.26 billion. While acetyl volumes can be partly offset by disciplined operating rates and targeted price actions, spreads are the decisive determinant of profitability, and the latest previews suggest limited relief in the quarter under review.

Quarterly performance in acetyls typically exhibits sensitivity to feedstock costs and downstream pricing, so any incremental movement in acetic acid or vinyl acetate monomer realized prices versus input costs could change the run-rate quickly. Given the forecasted year-over-year declines in both revenue and EPS, the base case embedded in consensus appears to assume that spreads remain compressed with only modest sequential improvement, if any. This dynamic also makes throughput decisions critical; operating at rates aligned to demand is essential to protect margins and cash conversion when spreads are tight.

The market’s emphasis this quarter is less on growth and more on defending earnings quality while preserving cash. That means inventory management, working capital discipline, and cost containment are as important as price realization. Beyond the quarter, analysts anticipate that any broader recovery in acetyl spreads would be a key earnings lever, but in the immediate term, the outlook remains cautious, with margin headwinds expected to persist. As a result, the strength of Engineered Materials and the company’s cost-out execution are important counterbalances to acetyl margin risk.

Balance sheet, deleveraging, and portfolio mix after Micromax

Portfolio actions and balance sheet management are front and center for this print. Celanese closed the divestment of its Micromax business in early February for approximately $500.00 million in cash, earmarked for deleveraging. This move supports a cleaner portfolio and provides liquidity to reduce net leverage, a topic that multiple analysts have flagged as a continuing focus. The step strengthens the balance sheet’s flexibility but also removes a revenue and earnings contributor that Engineered Materials and cost-out initiatives will need to replace over time.

Cash generation and leverage are likely to be closely dissected. While adjusted EPS last quarter came in at $1.34, the GAAP net loss of $1.36 billion underscores why investors will watch free cash flow conversion, potential non-cash adjustments, and interest expense run-rate. Analyst commentary suggests a cost-out program on the order of $100.00 million for 2026, and expectations are that overall earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization will improve roughly in line with that program. In the immediate quarter, however, the consolidation of portfolio changes and the state of acetyl spreads imply that deleveraging progress may rely more on proceeds, disciplined capital allocation, and working capital release than on a core earnings inflection.

Strategically, a sharper focus on higher-return platforms should, over time, support more durable cash flows. The Micromax divestment reduces complexity and provides dry powder for debt reduction, which can lower future interest burden and raise equity cash yields. For the stock, the near-term reaction is likely tied to three updates in the release and call: whether fourth-quarter results track the low end of prior company guidance, the trajectory of acetyl spreads into the first half, and clarity on additional cash-saving measures and portfolio optimization. Clear deliverables on deleveraging and operating cost control could help the shares navigate a quarter in which headline earnings are forecast to compress.

Analyst Opinions

Across the most recent institutional previews collected since January 1, 2026, the majority view is cautious ahead of the quarter. Out of four prominent perspectives, three lean cautious or neutral-to-guarded on the near-term earnings setup versus one bullish call, implying a cautious majority. The cautious camp highlights several common threads: acetyl margin pressure, the likelihood that results land near the low end of company guidance, the need for further deleveraging, and a reliance on cost-out and pricing discipline rather than top-line acceleration to protect earnings.

One leading global investment bank expects fourth-quarter EPS to be at the low end of company guidance, citing sustained margin pressure in acetyls driven by high energy costs, weak demand signals in parts of the value chain, and oversupply. In that same preview, the bank noted that 2026 earnings improvement is likely to be roughly in line with the company’s cost-out initiative, pointing to acetate tow headwinds while acknowledging that Engineered Materials could improve on the back of high-impact projects. The stance on the stock was an equal weight rating with a price target of $50, framing a balanced longer-term view but a guarded near-term earnings outlook.

Another respected institution maintained a neutral stance and adjusted its price target to the high $40s in January, emphasizing that while the company posted solid execution in a recent quarter, leverage remains a central concern until cash flow inflects more sustainably. A separate large-cap broker reiterated a neutral rating in the low $50s range, similarly underscoring the importance of deleveraging, cash discipline, and margin stabilization to support a constructive multi-quarter trajectory. Together, these neutral-to-cautious appraisals reflect a consensus that earnings risk skews to the downside in the immediate quarter, largely due to acetyl spread dynamics, even if the medium-term self-help levers—cost reductions, portfolio simplification, and Engineered Materials execution—are intact.

Within this cautious majority, expectations coalesce around the following performance profile for the print: revenue of approximately $2.26 billion (down 4.78% year-over-year), EPS near $0.91 (down 24.14% year-over-year), and EBIT of about $258.98 million (down 8.39% year-over-year). The gap between GAAP and adjusted results last quarter has increased the focus on quality-of-earnings, which these institutions are likely to probe through questions on one-time items, non-cash charges, and the cadence of cost savings realization. They will also be attentive to how the Micromax divestment proceeds are deployed against the debt stack and what that implies for interest expense and covenant headroom through 2026.

The cautious majority’s analytical emphasis implies that any upside surprise would most likely come from better-than-feared acetyl spreads, tighter cost control driving higher conversion, or stronger Engineered Materials contribution. Conversely, downside risk would be an incremental squeeze in acetyl margins or slower-than-expected progress on deleveraging and working capital release. Given the neutral-to-guarded positioning, the bar for a positive stock reaction may not be particularly high, but the path to a durable rerating likely requires evidence that margin headwinds in acetyls are easing and that cash generation is improving in a way that tangibly reduces leverage.

In sum, the predominant institutional stance views this quarter as a checkpoint rather than a turning point. The consensus anticipates down year-over-year revenue and EPS, and a cautious posture is anchored in acetyl margin uncertainty and balance sheet priorities. Within that framework, stronger execution in Engineered Materials and visible progress on deleveraging are expected to be the key signals that could shift sentiment over the coming quarters.