The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release September price data at 9:30 AM on October 15. Financial institutions anticipate that while pork prices continued their downward trend in September, sustained core CPI growth suggests the month's Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year decline may narrow. Additionally, with weakening carryover factor drag, September's Producer Price Index (PPI) year-over-year decline is expected to narrow.

**September CPI Decline May Narrow**

Analysts believe that despite continued weakness in pork prices during September, persistent core CPI growth indicates the monthly CPI year-over-year decline could narrow. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, August saw nationwide consumer prices fall 0.4% year-over-year while remaining flat month-over-month.

For September CPI year-over-year growth, various research teams have provided forecasts: CICC Macro at -0.3%, China Minsheng Bank's chief economist team at 0%, Industrial Securities Research at -0.2%, Huatai Securities Research Institute at -0.1%, and Huachuang Securities Research Institute at approximately -0.2%.

September witnessed oversupply in hog production capacity, with pork prices continuing to hit new lows. CICC Macro notes that under weak demand growth, "anti-involution" capacity reduction must follow breeding cycles. The short-term pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, with September pork wholesale prices continuing to weaken month-over-month, while year-over-year declines expanded slightly from 25.0% to 26.3%.

Regarding energy prices, China Minsheng Bank's chief economist team pointed out that domestic refined oil prices remained unchanged in September, as international oil price fluctuations did not reach the 50 yuan per ton threshold specified in the Petroleum Price Management Measures.

For core CPI, institutions believe that factors including the approaching long holiday and school season, along with continued gold price increases, may still support service consumption demand, sustaining core CPI year-over-year growth.

**Weakening Carryover Factor Drag Expected to Narrow September PPI Decline**

Analysts expect that September's weakening carryover factor drag will help narrow PPI's year-over-year decline. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, August nationwide producer prices fell 2.9% year-over-year, with the decline narrowing 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, while month-over-month prices shifted from a 0.2% decline to flat.

For September PPI year-over-year growth, forecasts from various institutions include: CICC Macro at -2.5%, China Minsheng Bank's chief economist team at -2.5%, Industrial Securities Research at -2.3%, Huatai Securities Research Institute at -2.4%, and Huachuang Securities Research Institute at approximately -2.5%.

Institutions attribute September's PPI year-over-year improvement primarily to narrowing carryover factor declines due to low base effects from the same period last year. Industrial Securities Research indicates that September's PPI carryover factor was -0.1%, with declines narrowing 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reducing base drag and supporting PPI recovery.

CICC Macro notes that September PMI main raw materials purchase price index and factory price index fell 0.1 and 0.9 percentage points respectively compared to August, implying PPI month-over-month may weaken again to -0.1%.

From internationally-priced commodity perspectives, oil prices saw OPEC+ production increases meeting expectations while geopolitical conflicts maintain uncertainty. Brent crude's monthly average price rose slightly, and under base effects, September crude oil price year-over-year declines further narrowed from 14.7% the previous month to 7.3%. For non-ferrous metals, copper prices surged again amid Federal Reserve rate cuts and Indonesian mining supply disruptions.

Domestic related commodity prices showed differentiation as "anti-involution" market conditions cooled. For coal, port thermal coal prices rebounded due to local mine overcapacity inspections. In steel, rebar prices declined under weak demand and inventory accumulation pressure. For construction materials, cement prices stabilized while float glass prices retreated.