As of February 11, among the 42 A-share listed banks, 11 have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, including four joint-stock banks, six city commercial banks, and one rural commercial bank. The disclosed data indicates that listed banks overall demonstrated stable operational growth, gradual recovery in profitability, and sustained improvement in asset quality during 2025.
City commercial banks reported the most notable net profit growth. In terms of scale, China Merchants Bank's total assets exceeded 13 trillion yuan, while Industrial Bank's assets surpassed 11 trillion yuan. Both China CITIC Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank joined the "10 trillion club." Small and medium-sized banks showed faster asset growth. By the end of 2025, six banks, including Bank of Qingdao Co.,Ltd., Qilu Bank, and Bank of Nanjing, reported asset growth exceeding 10% compared to the beginning of the year, with Bank of Qingdao Co.,Ltd. leading at 18.12%.
All 11 listed banks achieved year-on-year net profit growth. City commercial banks stood out, with Bank of Qingdao Co.,Ltd. expecting a net profit of 5.188 billion yuan in 2025, up 21.66% year-on-year—the highest growth rate so far. Qilu Bank and Bank of Hangzhou also recorded double-digit profit growth at 14.58% and 12.05%, respectively. Bank of Ningbo and Bank of Nanjing each reported net profits exceeding 20 billion yuan, reaching 29.333 billion yuan and 21.807 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.13% and 8.08%, respectively. Among joint-stock banks, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank posted the highest profit growth, with a net profit of 50.017 billion yuan, up 10.52% year-on-year. China Merchants Bank reported the largest profit at 150.181 billion yuan, though growth was modest at 1.21%. As the only rural commercial bank to disclose performance data so far, Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank expects a net profit of 2.043 billion yuan, up 5.04% year-on-year.
A Shenwan Hongyuan research report highlighted three key reasons for the stable or marginally improved profit growth among listed banks in 2025: narrowing net interest margin declines stabilizing net interest income, improved non-interest income as market sentiment recovered and fee pressures eased, and stable asset quality ensuring credit costs did not significantly erode profits.
Regarding asset quality, six of the 11 banks saw a decline in non-performing loan ratios, three remained flat, and only two experienced a slight increase of 1–2 basis points. Bank of Qingdao Co.,Ltd. recorded the largest reduction, with its NPL ratio dropping 17 basis points to 0.97%. Qilu Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank followed with declines of 14 and 10 basis points, respectively. Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank's NPL ratio fell 2 basis points to 0.88%, while Bank of Ningbo, Bank of Hangzhou, and Bank of Nanjing maintained excellent levels of 0.76%, 0.76%, and 0.83%, respectively.
Eight of the 11 banks reported varying degrees of decline in their provision coverage ratios, though overall levels remained adequate. Xiamen Bank saw the largest drop, from 391.95% to 312.63%, while Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank's ratio fell 58.77 percentage points to 370.19%. Industry experts caution that a lower provision coverage ratio should not be simplistically interpreted as deteriorating asset quality. Adjustments are often proactive financial measures to balance short-term performance with long-term stability, such as reducing provisions to maintain profit stability during growth pressure or recalibrating excessively high reserves.
Since the start of 2026, the A-share banking sector has generally performed modestly. However, a structural rally emerged in late January, with regional city commercial banks significantly outperforming larger banks. By February 11, Bank of Qingdao Co.,Ltd. had surged over 21% in 10 trading days, while Bank of Nanjing, Xiamen Bank, and Bank of Shanghai advanced around 10%. A China Securities report noted that the peak outflow driven by passive funds in January has passed, and the banking sector now offers high allocation value amid market rebalancing.
According to Liu Chengxiang, chief banking analyst at Kaiyuan Securities, the rally stems from both fundamental and capital flow factors. Positive 2025 performance forecasts from multiple banks are revising overly pessimistic market views. Stabilizing revenue and profit growth, gradually bottoming net interest margins, and improving asset quality collectively underpin the sector's fundamentals.
Institutional interest in bank stocks has also rebounded. Rough estimates indicate about 15 listed banks have received institutional research visits this year, with leading city commercial banks in the Yangtze River Delta region being the most favored. Key concerns include credit expansion and early-year performance, net interest margin trends and cost control, non-interest income potential, and asset quality stability.
Looking ahead, Bank of Shanghai noted that proactive credit deployment has improved the quantity and quality of project reserves compared to previous years. The bank expects loan prime rates to continue declining in 2026, with repricing effects further reducing earning asset yields. Deposit costs are also anticipated to fall, though competition may limit the decline relative to loans, leading to a slight narrowing of net interest margins.
Bank of Nanjing emphasized robust corporate credit growth aligned with expectations, providing a solid foundation for annual expansion. The bank aims to optimize credit structure and risk management while deepening regional market presence. Bank of Hangzhou reported strong corporate lending in early 2026, with stable asset yields. Bank of Ningbo plans to focus on small businesses, manufacturing, import-export firms, and consumer sectors to support lending growth and real economic development.
China Securities anticipates favorable first-quarter credit performance and stable asset quality, with gradual recovery in revenue and profit growth reinforcing core equity asset value. From an asset allocation perspective, Changjiang Securities recommends prioritizing city commercial banks with outstanding performance, as they are expected to lead profit growth in 2026, driven by rapid credit expansion during the current economic cycle.