Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered at least a temporary surge in crude oil prices, according to State Street Investment Management, which suggests that gold prices could climb back to the range of $5,500 to $5,600 per ounce in March. U.S.-listed gold ETFs recorded net inflows of $4.5 billion in February, bringing total inflows for 2026 so far to $10.5 billion, a significant increase compared to the $6.3 billion seen in the first two months of 2025. Despite an annual return of 65% for gold, global gold fund assets accounted for slightly less than 1% of total ETF and mutual fund assets by the end of 2025. The U.S. dollar has weakened overall this year but remained largely flat in February before rebounding in early March. State Street noted that market sentiment remains bearish on the dollar, which is expected to continue supporting gold bullion and precious metal prices. Meanwhile, the yield on U.S. 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) has fallen to nearly 1%, hitting its lowest level since late 2022, further reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. State Street maintains a positive outlook on gold prices, with a base-case forecast of $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce. There is also a 35% probability that prices could rise to the $5,500–$6,250 range, with strong price support expected between $4,400 and $4,600 per ounce.