Abstract

Home Depot will report quarterly results on August 18, 2026 Pre-MKt; this preview outlines current consensus for revenue and earnings, reviews last quarter’s results, highlights category drivers for the upcoming print, and summarizes the prevailing institutional stance.

Market Forecast

Current market expectations point to revenue of 47.28 billion US dollars, implying 4.24% year-over-year growth for this quarter, with expected EPS of 4.73, up 0.48% year over year, and EBIT of 6.80 billion US dollars, up 0.94% year over year. Forecasts available do not include explicit gross profit margin or net profit margin targets, and management has not provided a quarterly margin guide in the recent update window.

The core categories remain Building Materials, Decorative Materials, and Hardware Tools, where an integrated approach to merchandising and loyalty, combined with operational streamlining, is expected to support steady ticket and mix through the quarter. The most promising near-term contributor is Building Materials, which generated 12.97 billion US dollars last quarter; against a companywide growth projection of 4.24% year over year for this quarter, this category is positioned as a leading contributor given resilient professional demand and improving cross-selling depth.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Home Depot delivered revenue of 41.77 billion US dollars (up 4.79% year over year), a gross profit margin of 33.00%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of 3.29 billion US dollars with a 7.88% net profit margin, and adjusted EPS of 3.43 (down 3.65% year over year). GAAP net income rose 27.93% quarter over quarter, and revenue modestly exceeded external projections. By category, Building Materials generated 12.97 billion US dollars, Decorative Materials 12.61 billion US dollars, Hardware Tools 12.19 billion US dollars, and Other 4.00 billion US dollars, underscoring a balanced contribution across the three core categories that together represent over 90% of sales.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Product Categories and Merchandising Execution

Momentum in core categories—Building Materials, Decorative Materials, and Hardware Tools—should be anchored by stable ticket trends, disciplined pricing, and curated assortments aimed at both professional and do-it-yourself customer missions. The company has moved to unify leadership for merchandise, loyalty, finance, professional services, and technology, which is designed to improve the consistency of promotions, elevate attachment rates, and streamline decision speed across stores and digital. This reorganization is expected to reduce friction across channels, supporting conversion and mix, particularly in projects that straddle multiple aisles (for example, exterior projects that require a combination of building envelope materials, fasteners, and finishing components). With inventory and supply availability in better balance than in prior periods, category managers have greater flexibility to optimize endcaps and promotional end-of-aisle features without sacrificing margin structure. The cadence of promotions appears targeted rather than broad-based, suggesting the company is prioritizing profitability while still capturing seasonal demand. Against consensus expectations for revenue up 4.24% year over year, these operational levers are aligned to deliver a consistent comp trajectory without requiring outsized discounting to drive traffic. In practical terms, granular category resets and localized assortments tied to weather and regional project calendars should help mitigate variability and sustain a more predictable sell-through curve for seasonal and project-related SKUs. The net effect for this quarter is that merchandising productivity, rather than raw price increases, is expected to account for the incremental lift in sales and gross profit dollars.

Professional Customer Ecosystem as the High-Potential Engine

Professional customers remain the key near-term growth engine, and multiple update notes indicate the company is seeing solid cross-selling progress with professional-oriented banners and partners. Management commentary highlighted wins in cross-selling and expressed satisfaction with performance in key professional channels, which aligns with external previews that anticipate Home Depot to benefit more from professional demand than peers in the same period. The establishment of a “Professional Accelerated Office,” led by the Chief Financial Officer, is noteworthy because it centralizes accountability for pro initiatives alongside capital allocation, which can shorten cycle times for product expansions, tool rental enhancements, and fulfillment capabilities geared to jobsite schedules. In this quarter’s setup, pro-heavy categories like roofing, exterior envelope, drywall-adjacent supplies, and mechanical/electrical/plumbing consumables have the potential to outpace the overall company growth rate, providing a stabilizing effect when DIY traffic is uneven. The qualitative read-through is that pro order books are healthy enough to support steady ticket sizes even if project starts are lumpy, and the centralized structure allows the company to calibrate labor, delivery windows, and inventory buffers around peak pro demand days. From a profitability lens, the pro ecosystem can support better inventory turns and predictable replenishment patterns, which helps working-capital intensity and reduces markdown risk on slow movers. The company’s consensus revenue growth expectation of 4.24% year over year for the quarter, paired with slight expected expansion in EBIT dollars (up 0.94% year over year), is consistent with a mix shift favoring professional baskets that include high-consumable attachment and tool rental—both supportive of gross profit dollar growth without requiring an aggressive promotional stance.

What Will Drive the Stock This Quarter

The primary performance swing factor for the stock is comparable sales quality—specifically, the balance between ticket and transactions and the mix of pro versus DIY in a quarter where consensus looks for revenue of 47.28 billion US dollars and EPS of 4.73. Investors will parse whether gross profit dollars track in line with or ahead of sales, as this would imply that the company’s merchandising and pricing discipline is holding amid targeted promotions. Within gross margin, category mix and shrink remain watch points; a controlled shrink environment and expanding contribution from higher-margin attachments can offset any localized price actions in price-sensitive baskets. On operating expenses, the focus is on store labor efficiency and technology-enabled tasking, which together determine how much of the gross profit dollar growth converts into EBIT—consensus currently anticipates 6.80 billion US dollars in EBIT, up 0.94% year over year. Updates on professional channel momentum and integration depth will be influential for the multiple, particularly if management details tangible milestones such as broader delivery coverage, improved will-call times, or expanded jobsite services that translate into sustained order frequency. Digital and omnichannel execution also matters: incremental gains in buy-online-pickup-in-store, same-day and next-day capabilities for pro accounts, and frictionless returns can support both customer satisfaction and inventory productivity. Finally, tone around quarter-to-date trends and category breadth will shape how investors extrapolate into the remainder of the year; a message of stable demand across project types and consistent execution in pro-oriented categories would support the view that the quarter’s 4.24% revenue growth forecast is achievable with limited margin trade-off.

Analyst Opinions

Across previews and rating actions within the period, the majority view is bullish, with buy-rated commentaries outnumbering neutral stances; in effect, most notes emphasize professional demand resilience, execution on cross-selling, and operating discipline into the print. Barclays reiterated a Buy with a 420 US dollars price target, pointing to a constructive setup where professional demand and improved execution can sustain revenue growth while preserving gross profit discipline. TD Cowen maintained a Buy and increased its price target to 410 US dollars in recent commentary, framing the current year as an inflection supported by a pro-focused strategy and improving integration across professional channels. J.P. Morgan also maintained a positive stance, citing an earnings beat in the prior update window, reaffirmed outlook, and relative sales momentum as factors underpinning a favorable view into the upcoming quarter. The common thread in these bullish assessments is that the company’s structural work—centralizing leadership for merchandise, loyalty, finance, professional services, and technology—creates a framework for faster execution and better cross-functional alignment, which can compound over successive quarters in the form of steadier comps, healthier gross profit dollars, and contained SG&A.

Bullish analysts also highlight that consensus expectations for this quarter are not aggressive: revenue up 4.24% year over year, EPS up 0.48% year over year, and EBIT up 0.94% year over year suggest that even modest upside in attachments, pro ticket strength, or shrink improvement could translate into outperformance versus the modeled P&L. In their view, professional demand continues to offer relative stability through project cycles, with exterior and building-envelope categories providing a runway for steady sell-through that requires less promotional depth than discretionary refresh categories. Execution details are another focus area; previews point to cross-selling momentum and operational progress that can translate into service-level improvements valued by professional accounts, such as better delivery precision and jobsite convenience—factors that drive repeat orders and loyalty. With last quarter’s revenue slightly ahead of projections and GAAP net income accelerating 27.93% quarter over quarter, bullish institutions argue that the underlying cost and mix framework is supportive enough to absorb targeted promotions while protecting the gross margin structure. They also note that centralized leadership of professional initiatives by the Chief Financial Officer can streamline investment decisions, enabling faster rollouts of tools, fulfillment enhancements, and service innovations that improve the economics of professional transactions.

In summary, the dominant institutional view anticipates that Home Depot can meet or modestly exceed current-quarter expectations, anchored by continued strength in professional channels, disciplined merchandising, and operational cohesion following the leadership realignment. The bullish case rests on the premise that the combination of steady pro demand, improved cross-selling, and measured expense control is sufficient to deliver the consensus profile—47.28 billion US dollars of revenue, 4.73 in EPS, and 6.80 billion US dollars of EBIT—with potential upside if category mix or shrink trends are incrementally better than modeled. The majority previews therefore frame this quarter as a validation point for execution initiatives already underway, rather than requiring a step-change in end-market conditions to support the numbers.