On May 19 this year, Nasdaq's Listing Qualifications Department issued a written notice to Tuniu (TOUR.US), indicating that its stock closing price had fallen below the minimum bid price of $1.00 per share for 30 consecutive trading days, creating delisting risk. According to Nasdaq Listing Rule 5810(c)(3)(A), the company has a 180-calendar-day compliance period, or until November 17, 2025, to regain compliance under listing rules. If at any time during the 180-day compliance period, the company's ADS closing price reaches $1.00 or higher for at least 10 consecutive trading days, Nasdaq will provide written confirmation of compliance to the company.

This marks the third time Tuniu has received a stock price non-compliance notice since January and August of last year. Financial intelligence platforms observed that from May 19 this year to present, Tuniu's closing prices have remained below $1, with only June 11 seeing an intraday high exceeding $1 at $1.01. Following this, the stock price continued to fluctuate downward over the next two months, hitting this year's low of $0.75 intraday on August 8.

With the "National Day" Golden Week approaching, whether the company can leverage the holiday period may be crucial for Tuniu's Q3 performance to exceed expectations and ultimately achieve stock price compliance.

**Performance-Driven Stock Price**

Recently, Tuniu's stock price has shown a clear trend of following performance fluctuations. From a technical perspective, seven trading days before the intraday drop to the periodic low on August 8, the company's stock price had already touched the lower Bollinger Band, showing clear oversold signals. However, the corresponding volume showed extreme contraction (trading volume on August 6 was only 52,000 shares), indicating that floating chips had been washed out and market consensus was strong.

As daily trading volume gradually increased after August 8 with investors entering the market, the company's stock price made a technical return toward the middle Bollinger Band. However, technical recovery alone was insufficient to support market confidence. On August 13, Tuniu's stock price returned to the middle Bollinger Band for the first time since $0.75, closing up 7.93% that day. But the K-line showed a long upper shadow, and while daily trading volume expanded to 332,200 shares, it also indicated growing market divergence.

With overall cost lines significantly higher than the current price, as investors entered to buy the dip, the profitable chip ratio surged to 22.19% that day, an increase of 17.8 percentage points from the previous day. Two days later, Tuniu released its Q2 2025 financial report, which was the third trading day of the stock price hovering around the middle Bollinger Band. The earnings performance would undoubtedly determine the subsequent trend direction.

The announcement showed that Tuniu's Q2 2025 quarterly net revenue was approximately 135 million yuan, up 15% year-over-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 14.526 million yuan, down 66% year-over-year. The overall summary was "revenue growth without profit growth." These two key financial metrics revealed deeper information - that Tuniu continued its Q1 2025 expansion strategy, increasing R&D investment and market promotion.

According to financial data, in Q2 2025, the company's revenue costs were 48.9 million yuan, up 50.2% year-over-year, with revenue costs as a percentage of net revenue rising from 27.8% in the same period last year to 36.2%. Meanwhile, the company's operating expenses reached 78.9 million yuan, up 58.0% year-over-year. Of this, R&D expenses were 16.4 million yuan, up 29.2% year-over-year; sales and marketing expenses were 45 million yuan, up 11.9% year-over-year.

However, the increase in costs and expenses has to some extent translated into Tuniu's revenue. The financial report showed that the company's group tour business performed brilliantly, with revenue of 113 million yuan, achieving 26.3% year-over-year growth, reflecting recovering consumer demand for group tours and other travel products, and indirectly indicating that Tuniu's business expansion captured recovery opportunities in related markets.

On August 21 and 22, Tuniu's stock price posted two consecutive gains, with cumulative gains reaching 15.27%. Therefore, Tuniu's reversal performance over six trading days from August 15 to 22 directly demonstrated investors' journey from brief panic over the company's year-over-year net profit decline to recognition of the company's input-output performance.

Over the following month, Tuniu's stock price basically ran along the upper Bollinger Band, with the stock price again approaching $1, until September 22 when it again bottomed out near the middle Bollinger Band, reaching another directional choice point on the eve of the National Day Golden Week and Q3 earnings release.

**Can the Holiday Tourism Market Deliver Above-Expected Performance?**

In Q1 this year, Tuniu's net revenue grew 8.9% year-over-year, while in Q2 the year-over-year growth rate reached 15%. Previous increased investments are gradually converting into company revenue, and the robust domestic tourism market is expected to bring above-expected returns.

According to Ministry of Culture and Tourism data, during the 3-day Qingming holiday in 2025, national domestic trips totaled 126 million, up 6.30% year-over-year; total domestic tourism spending was 57.549 billion yuan, up 6.70% year-over-year. During the 5-day "May Day" holiday, national domestic trips totaled 314 million, up 6.40% year-over-year; total domestic tourist spending was 180.269 billion yuan, up 8.00% year-over-year. During the 3-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday, national domestic trips totaled 119 million, up 5.70% year-over-year; total domestic tourism spending was 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.90% year-over-year.

Clearly, in Q2 2025, during major holidays, tourist numbers grew steadily, consumer markets remained hot, and tourism consumption confidence strengthened steadily. From online original information trend charts, Q2 2025 tourism information trends showed a "pyramid" shape, with opinion peaks appearing between April 29 and May 5. This means "May Day" holiday travel became the Q2 opinion focus, indirectly reflecting public enthusiasm and activity for holidays, especially short holiday tourism.

On another front, data showed that during "May Day," cross-city accommodation orders exceeded 80%, and domestic long-distance tour bookings accounted for 46% of travelers. Additionally, in Q2 2025, measures such as "buy-and-refund" tax refunds for overseas travelers were introduced, and domestic inbound tourism also achieved above-expected recovery, with Q2 2025 inbound and outbound tourism information volume reaching 875,000 items, up 41.86% year-over-year.

Looking at this year's National Day cultural tourism information trend performance, information flow peaks appeared before September 5, a full week earlier than 2024. Advanced travel planning often signals strong tourism consumption momentum. Moreover, domestic hotel search heat surged 400% month-over-month in the past month, with flight ticket searches climbing simultaneously. Compared to the same period last year, domestic hotel search heat increased 40%, and flight ticket search volume grew nearly 30%.

From timing characteristics, this year's 8-day National Day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday maintained high heat throughout with no obvious "valley period," with tourists showing significant trends of locking in itineraries early, indirectly raising market expectations for this year's National Day Mid-Autumn tourism market performance.

Notably, in August this year, Tuniu's board again approved a new share repurchase plan. Under this plan, after the 2024 share repurchase plan terminates, the company will immediately launch a new round of common stock or ADS repurchases not exceeding $10 million.

Stock repurchases combined with tourism market above-expected potential are expected to bring positive secondary market feedback for Tuniu, which will determine whether it can achieve stock price compliance before November 17 this year.