Two Major Leading Indicators Raise Alarm, Bitcoin Sentiment Wanes

Deep News
Oct 17

As Bitcoin experiences significant price fluctuations recently, two key leading indicators from the options market and miner on-chain activities are sending increasingly urgent warning signals.

Latest market dynamics reveal that traders are preparing for potential further downside risks. According to a report today, the "delta skew" of Bitcoin's options market has risen above 10%, indicating that professional traders are buying put options at a premium. This is typically seen as a sign of bearish sentiment in the market.

Simultaneously, miners' movements are also causing market concern. Data from CryptoQuant shows that since October 9, miner addresses have deposited approximately 51,000 Bitcoins to Binance. This marks the largest inflow to exchange since July and historically has occurred before price weaknesses.

The simultaneous deterioration of these two indicators is directly contributing to rising risk-averse sentiment in the market and poses a severe test to Bitcoin's price support levels, as the price briefly dropped to $107,600 on Thursday.

Options Market Signals Alarm, Surge in Bearish Bets Data from the derivatives market clearly reflects the growing anxiety among traders.

According to laevitas.ch, the 30-day options delta skew for Bitcoin, which measures professional trader sentiment, has surpassed 10%, significantly above the neutral range of -6% to +6%. This indicates that market participants are willing to pay a higher cost for put options to hedge against potential price declines.

Furthermore, the demand for downside protection strategies is corroborated by trading volume. Reports indicate that on Thursday, the trading volume of put options at Deribit was 50% higher than that of call options, reaching its highest level in over 30 days.

This marks a buildup of market pressure, as typically, cryptocurrency traders are inclined towards optimism, and the usual reading for the put/call options ratio tends to be lower.

Miners' Large Transfers Indicate Historical Sell Pressure In addition to signals from the derivatives market, movements by one of the most critical participants in the Bitcoin ecosystem—miners—add uncertainty to the market.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that over the past seven days, miner addresses have transferred 51,000 Bitcoins to Binance, worth over $5.7 billion. On October 11 alone, miners deposited more than 14,000 Bitcoins to Binance, occurring the day after a recent industry retracement. This scale also set a record since July of last year.

CryptoQuant noted in a report on Thursday that when miners transfer Bitcoin from wallets intended for storage or mining to trading platforms, it generally indicates preparation for selling or hedging.

While the report emphasizes that these transfers could also occur for other reasons such as collateral, financing, or operational needs, historical experience suggests that when miners begin selling, the market typically does not react positively.

This sentiment shift from "holding" to "selling" has historically put pressure on Bitcoin's price and often precedes significant price corrections.

Bitcoin miners have transitioned from holders to sellers, historically indicating drastic changes in Bitcoin's price and market sentiment.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10