Orient Securities has released a research report stating that, looking ahead to 2026, LCD demand is expected to improve due to factors such as major sporting events. Concurrently, the LCD industry has achieved a high degree of market concentration, and leading manufacturers are expected to drive a better supply-demand balance through continued production control. On the supply side, the three major panel makers are anticipated to persistently promote output control and implement production cuts during the Lunar New Year holiday. Reflecting this in pricing, according to TrendForce data, TV panel prices in January 2026 are projected to rise across the board, with the average price for all sizes—including 32-inch, 43-inch, 55-inch, and 65-inch panels—increasing by $1 compared to the previous month. OLED panels significantly enhance the slimness and lightness of personal computers and are expected to become a key highlight for PC products in the future. The main viewpoints of Orient Securities are as follows:
LCD demand is expected to recover, and leading manufacturers are anticipated to improve the supply-demand relationship through sustained production control. Some investors believe that growth in TV shipments is limited and that the industry's supply-demand dynamics will be difficult to improve. Orient Securities, however, argues that LCD demand is poised to strengthen in 2026, influenced by events like the FIFA World Cup. Furthermore, the LCD industry's high market concentration allows leading players to foster a healthier supply-demand balance via ongoing production discipline. On the demand side, major sporting events in 2026, such as the FIFA World Cup, will drive inventory replenishment needs. Additionally, recent domestic policy announcements regarding continued trade-in programs, which still offer a 15% subsidy for Grade 1 energy efficiency TVs, are expected to stimulate demand. Looking forward to 2026, the trend of increasing average TV panel sizes is likely to continue, and coupled with improved shipment volumes, this should boost overall demand in terms of area. On the supply side, there is a lack of new capacity for LCD TV panels, with the three major panel makers—BOE, TCL CSOT, and HKC—collectively holding a significant market share. These leading manufacturers are expected to continue pushing for production control and will execute reductions during the Lunar New Year period. This is reflected in pricing; TrendForce data indicates that TV panel prices in January 2026 are forecast to rise comprehensively, with average prices for 32-inch, 43-inch, 55-inch, and 65-inch panels each increasing by $1 month-over-month.
Medium-size OLED penetration is expected to accelerate, boosting demand in the OLED industry. Current market attention to the potential demand for medium-size OLEDs is relatively limited. Orient Securities believes that OLED panels offer a significant advantage in making personal computers thinner and lighter, positioning them to become a major selling point for future PC products. Looking ahead to 2026, factors such as improving production yields and the commencement of operations for Gen 8.6 OLED production lines are expected to lead to a substantial reduction in the cost of medium-size OLEDs. This cost decline will, in turn, drive accelerated adoption in segments like laptops and tablets. From a manufacturer activity perspective, BOE's early activation of China's first Gen 8.6 AMOLED production line on December 30, 2025, and TCL Technology's announcement in September 2025 of plans to build a Gen 8.6 printed OLED project, both signal strong confidence from leading manufacturers in market demand and customer orders.
Focus on breakthroughs by domestic manufacturers in the panel industry chain. Domestic companies are accelerating technological advancements in areas like materials and driver ICs, positioning them to benefit from improving downstream demand. In OLED materials, Lighttech has begun small-batch supply of its new Red Host material, while its Green Prime and blue light materials are undergoing validation and evaluation by downstream customers. Xiahe Technology has achieved commercial mass production of materials including green dopant, red dopant, and hole injection layers and has completed its IPO tutoring filing. In driver ICs, Chipone Technology, a leading player in the Mainland China DDIC market, has filed for an IPO tutoring registration on the STAR Market. Looking forward, domestic manufacturers are expected to continue making breakthroughs across various segments of the panel industry chain, thereby accelerating the process of import substitution.
Related stocks include panel manufacturers such as TCL Technology (000100.SZ), BOE A (000725.SZ), Caihong Co., Ltd. (600707.SH), Tianma Microelectronics Co., Ltd. A (000050.SZ), Visionox Technology Inc. (002387.SZ), and Everdisplay Optronics Shanghai Co., Ltd. (688538.SH); panel material suppliers like Lighttech (688150.SH), Luwei Photonics Co., Ltd. (688401.SH), and Qingyi Photomask Ltd. (688138.SH); and panel module manufacturers such as BOE Varitronix Limited (00710.HK).
Risk factors include downstream demand falling short of expectations, a slower-than-expected cost reduction process, and delays in the pace of domestic substitution.