Earning Preview: Deluxe Q4 revenue is expected to decrease by 2.75%, and institutional views are cautiously constructive

Earnings Agent
Jan 21

Abstract

Deluxe will report its quarterly results on January 28, 2026 Post Market; this preview consolidates company guidance and recent estimates to frame revenue, profitability, margins, and adjusted EPS expectations for the current quarter and key segment trends.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company-tracked forecasts indicate current-quarter revenue of $517.40 million, an adjusted EPS estimate of $0.83, and EBIT of $65.80 million, with revenue expected to decline by 2.75% year over year and adjusted EPS essentially flat at 0.10% growth; margin focus centers on maintaining a gross profit margin in the low-50% range and a net profit margin near the mid-single-digit level. The main business mix highlights Print, Merchant Services, Data Solutions, and B2B Payments, with Print remaining the largest contributor and a stabilizing anchor, while services and payments drive recurring and transaction-based revenue. The most promising segment appears to be Data Solutions given its scalable, subscription-lean footprint, complemented by B2B Payments’ transaction growth; however, segment-level current-quarter forecasts are not available, so specific revenue and YoY data are omitted.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Deluxe delivered revenue of $540.25 million, a gross profit margin of 53.89%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $33.73 million, a net profit margin of 6.24%, and adjusted EPS of $1.09, with revenue up 2.24% year over year and adjusted EPS up 29.76% year over year. A key financial highlight was EBIT of $95.30 million, materially above earlier estimates, reflecting improved operating efficiency and disciplined cost control. Main business highlights included Print revenue of $279.95 million, Merchant Services at $98.00 million, Data Solutions at $89.22 million, and B2B Payments at $73.08 million, with quarter-on-quarter net profit increasing by 50.68%; specific YoY changes by segment were not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Print

Print remains the largest revenue contributor and the operational backbone of Deluxe’s portfolio. The previous quarter’s $279.95 million in Print revenue underscores the scale and resilience of legacy check printing and related business forms. For the current quarter, stabilization rather than growth is the central theme, with revenue pressure consistent with the company-level forecast decline of 2.75% year over year. Margin preservation is the key variable: with a recent gross profit margin of 53.89%, sustaining procurement discipline and pricing mix should support gross margin in the low-50% range despite lower volumes. The primary swing factor for stock performance within Print is the cadence of customer renewals and mix shifts away from commoditized products, which can help retain margin even if top-line volume softens.

Merchant Services

Merchant Services serves small and mid-sized businesses with solutions that aim to increase cash flow and streamline operations. The segment’s last-quarter revenue of $98.00 million points to meaningful scale and recurring engagement, and it typically aligns with broader small business health and transaction activity. Into the current quarter, a modest moderation in activity levels is consistent with the overall revenue decline forecast, though operational initiatives such as cross-sell, packaging of services, and retention programs can mitigate softness. The margin profile benefits from software-enabled workflows and subscription components, which should help support consolidated margins even if transaction volumes are choppy. Investors will watch segment ARR stability and the pace of new customer wins as key signals for the quarter.

Data Solutions

Data Solutions is positioned to benefit from recurring and scalable data-driven services. The segment generated $89.22 million last quarter and continues to be a strategic area for revenue durability and margin support. In the current quarter, the unit’s performance is linked to demand for analytics, marketing data solutions, and compliance-related offerings, which tend to be less cyclical than purely transactional businesses. While company-level revenue is forecast to decline, Data Solutions can still post relatively resilient results due to subscription and multi-year contractual structures that stabilize revenue recognition. The margin contribution from this segment is strategically important for sustaining consolidated gross margins near the low-50% band and maintaining net margins close to mid-single digits.

B2B Payments

B2B Payments posted $73.08 million last quarter and is an important lever for long-term growth. The near-term outlook hinges on volumes through integrated payables platforms, onboarding of new enterprise customers, and transaction mix. With the overall quarter forecast for revenue down 2.75% year over year, B2B Payments may still deliver incremental share gains via customer acquisition and expanded usage, offsetting broader softness. Key for margins will be operating leverage from platform transactions and cost efficiencies in payment processing, which can support EBIT even amid top-line pressure. The segment’s trajectory remains a central watchpoint for institutional investors evaluating Deluxe’s multi-year pivot toward technology-enabled services.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock’s near-term reaction will turn on revenue trajectory versus the $517.40 million estimate, adjusted EPS relative to $0.83, and evidence that gross and net margins remain anchored near last quarter’s levels. Any deviation in EBIT from the $65.80 million estimate will be scrutinized, as operating profit is a cleaner lens into execution and cost discipline. Segment commentary is likely to influence sentiment: confirmation of resilience in Data Solutions and progress in B2B Payments can offset Print volume pressures and frame the durability of Deluxe’s transformation. Investors will also focus on the sequential trend in net profit after last quarter’s 50.68% quarter-on-quarter increase, assessing whether that momentum carries into the current quarter or reverses with softer revenue.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional views skew cautiously constructive, with a majority favoring stable execution and margin hold despite a modest revenue decline forecast. Analysts highlight the durability of recurring revenue components in Data Solutions and Merchant Services and see B2B Payments as a lever for medium-term growth, while acknowledging that Print volume headwinds cap near-term top-line expansion. The tone of previews emphasizes scrutiny on adjusted EPS delivery around $0.83 and EBIT performance relative to $65.80 million, with downside risks tied to weaker-than-expected small-business activity and slower onboarding in payments. Overall, the prevailing stance anticipates balanced results, with focus on margin stability and segment-level progress to validate the company’s ongoing mix shift.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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