Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that with the confirmation of the continued implementation of the heavy-duty truck "trade-in" policy through 2026, the firm expects domestic heavy-duty truck sales in 2026 to reach 760,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%. The trade-in policy in 2025 has shown significant effects, resulting in a high base for heavy-duty truck sales. However, the firm observes that domestic logistics demand remains relatively robust. Given the high replacement base from 2017-2021, the decline in heavy-duty truck sales is anticipated to be limited. Overall, considering wholesale sales, the firm projects 2026 sales could reach 1.16 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with exports expected to maintain growth. The firm recommends Weichai Power Co., Ltd. (02338), Sinotruck Jinan Truck Co.,Ltd. (000951.SZ, 03808), Foton Motor Co., Ltd. (600166.SH), CIMC Vehicles (Group) Co., Ltd. (301039.SZ), and FAW Jiefang Group Co., Ltd. (000800.SZ). Guotai Haitong's key views are as follows:

In terms of total volume, domestic heavy-duty truck sales in April reached 117,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33% but a month-on-month decrease of 16%. Cumulative sales from January to April totaled 435,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23%. The firm attributes the strong year-on-year growth to sustained high demand in freight transport and engineering sectors following the Chinese New Year, coupled with proactive production and sales by manufacturers earlier in the year, which supported the significant cumulative increase. However, the month-on-month decline in April is linked to increasing pressure on Chinese heavy-duty truck exports, as geopolitical tensions have significantly impacted fuel supply for logistics clients in many Asian, African, and Latin American countries and regions.

Focusing on natural gas heavy-duty trucks, domestic sales in April were 26,000 units, a year-on-year surge of 87% but a month-on-month drop of 12%. Cumulative sales from January to April were 84,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 36%. For natural gas semi-trailer tractors specifically, April sales were 24,000 units, up 84% year-on-year but down 15% month-on-month. Cumulative sales for this segment from January to April were 81,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35%. The natural gas penetration rate for heavy-duty trucks was 22% in April and 19% for the January-April period. Based on the firm's calculation of the total cost of ownership (TCO) for heavy-duty trucks, using natural gas is more economical for tractors with an average annual mileage exceeding 150,000 kilometers for most of their lifecycle. The firm believes that driven by the large-scale equipment renewal policy, natural gas heavy-duty trucks, with their lower operating costs, are poised to see further increases in market penetration.

Focusing on new energy heavy-duty trucks, domestic sales in April were 24,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 78% and a month-on-month increase of 2%. Cumulative sales from January to April were 78,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 67%. The new energy penetration rate for heavy-duty trucks was 20% in April and 18% for the cumulative period. According to the firm's TCO analysis, the optimal TCO for new energy heavy-duty trucks is generally achieved at an annual mileage between 45,000 and 100,000 kilometers. The firm posits that with technological maturation and cost reductions, new energy heavy-duty trucks now possess intrinsic growth momentum. The new energy penetration rate is expected to continue growing in 2026, and market attention should remain on the implementation details of trade-in policies for new energy heavy-duty trucks.

Risk warnings include economic development falling short of expectations and significant increases in raw material prices.