US Stock Futures Drop. Nasdaq-100 Futures Down 0.74% While Futures Tied to S&P 500 Down 0.58%

Bloomberg
30 Apr

A six-day rally in US stocks looks set to pause as equity-index futures decline following disappointing earnings from Super Micro Computer Inc.

Contracts for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indexes fell 0.58% and 0.74% respectively in Asian trading as Super Micro tumbled in after-market hours, ahead of earnings from mega cap companies such as Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. Asian shares pared earlier gains. Treasuries extended this month’s advance, with 10-year yields falling for a seventh day. The dollar and gold were little changed.

The global stock rally faces a key test Wednesday when the US releases inflation and gross-domestic-product data that will give investors more information on how the economy was faring just before President Donald Trump announced country-specific levies on April 2. In recent weeks, investors have been cautiously optimistic after some recent tariff reprieves and speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to prevent a recession.

“Markets are just chopping around and looking for a fresh catalyst — a theme that Asia may echo as investors await key macro data, big tech earnings later today,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist for Saxo Markets in Singapore.

US real GDP growth likely cooled to a standstill in the first quarter as Trump’s policy shifts disrupted activity, according to Bloomberg Economics before the data is published later Wednesday.

In the latest pivot in Trump’s trade strategy, the president signed an executive order easing the impact of his auto tariffs, preventing duties on foreign-made vehicles from stacking on top of other levies and lessening charges on parts from overseas used to make vehicles in the US.

Trump also renewed criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as he championed his economic policies and tariff regime during an event on Tuesday to mark his 100th day in office. Trump said China deserved the steep tariffs he imposed on their exports and predicted Beijing could find a way to reduce their impact on American consumers.

In Asia, a gauge of China’s factory activity signaled the deepest contraction since December 2023, revealing early damage to the world’s second-biggest economy from the trade war with the US.

Also, Samsung Electronics Co.’s chip division reported better-than-expected profit after Chinese customers rushed to stockpile supplies ahead of US tariffs.

Four of the so-called Magnificent Seven — Microsoft, Apple Inc., Meta and Amazon.com Inc. — are due to report earnings this week. Analysts expect the group — which also includes Google-parent Alphabet, Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. — to deliver an average of 15% profit growth in 2025, a forecast that’s barely budged since the start of March despite the flareup in trade tensions.

“The focus on tech earnings here, or rather guidance, will be key,” said Sat Duhra, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors in Singapore. “Its been a significant driver of performance and there has been some rotation into more defensive high yield names.”

Still, not all companies are enjoying smooth sailing.

General Motors Co. and JetBlue Airways Corp. pulled their outlooks, while United Parcel Service Inc. said it expects to cut 20,000 jobs this year.

After the closing bell, Starbucks Corp. reported sales that fell slightly faster than expected. Visa Inc.’s earnings beat estimates. Snap Inc. declined to issue a sales forecast for the current period, saying it’s navigating macroeconomic “headwinds” for its advertising business. Super Micro Computer’s preliminary results fell short of analysts’ projections.

“Looking ahead, we believe the worst-case scenarios for policy change may be in,” said Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments. “But since uncertainty is still high in market-critical areas like business cost and revenue, and since valuations have already improved from recent market bottoms, market volatility is likely to persist.”

HSBC Holdings Plc strategists cut their year-end S&P 500 target to 5,600 from 6,700, saying tariffs and weaker-than-expected US economic growth will pressure corporate earnings.

“We expect the market narrative will flip-flop between recession and stagflation until tariff turmoil subsides, the Fed starts easing, and/or inflationary pressures fail to build up,” strategists including Nicole Inui wrote in a note to clients.

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