The "fourth pole" of China's economy is on the rise.

01 With an average annual growth rate of 5.5%, another trillion-dollar province is poised to emerge. A recent press conference in Sichuan on the province's "15th Five-Year Plan" revealed that Sichuan's GDP is projected to grow at an average annual rate of around 5.5% during this period, maintaining a pace above the national average.

As provinces across the country release their "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines, major economic indicators have been disclosed, with most major economic provinces setting GDP growth targets above the national level. Among the top ten provinces, Sichuan leads with an average annual growth target of approximately 5.5%, reflecting the province's proactive role in driving economic growth and signaling the accelerated rise of a new growth engine in western China.

Given this growth trajectory and considering the positive GDP deflator, Sichuan's GDP is expected to surpass 9 trillion yuan by 2030 and steadily join the "10-trillion-yuan club" before 2035, further elevating the economic ceiling for central and western provinces.

This means that over the next five years, Sichuan must achieve an average annual increase of 300-400 billion yuan in GDP, equivalent to building a new economically strong city each year, highlighting the ambitious nature of this target.

During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Sichuan's GDP crossed two trillion-yuan thresholds, reaching 6.77 trillion yuan in 2025 and rising from sixth to fifth place nationally—a historic achievement. With an average annual growth rate of 5.7%, Sichuan has contributed significantly to stabilizing the national economy.

In the first quarter of this year, Sichuan's GDP grew by 5.5% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than the national average, marking the third consecutive quarter of 5.5% growth and providing a strong start for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period.

While the national target is to "maintain a reasonable growth range," and some provinces have set flexible growth targets, Sichuan has set a high target of 5.5%, demonstrating both confidence in future development and a commitment to self-imposed pressure.

It is well known that the larger the economic scale, the greater the effort required to achieve the same growth rate. Maintaining high growth over five or even ten years further tests the momentum of economic and industrial transformation and the quality of high-quality development.

Moreover, external challenges such as intensifying geopolitical conflicts and complex tariff disputes, coupled with internal pressures from the accelerated shift between old and new growth drivers and the transformative impact of the new technological revolution, make sustained high growth both challenging and valuable.

In other words, an average annual growth rate of 5.5% reflects not only Sichuan's determination to maintain its position as the largest economy in central and western China but also the internal requirements for structural adjustment, momentum transformation, and development transition. It is a critical step in moving from a major economic province to a strong economic province.

Sichuan's "15th Five-Year Plan" outline mentions "strong province" 26 times, covering manufacturing, technology, education, talent, and other fields, collectively outlining a grand blueprint for "building a modern economic powerhouse."

If a major economic province focuses on scale, a strong economic province emphasizes structural innovation, dynamic momentum, and high-quality development, reflecting simultaneous improvements in innovation, value-added, and sustainability.

In the era of incremental expansion, many provinces could achieve rapid growth through large-scale infrastructure investments and factor-driven development. However, in the innovation-driven era, only the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation can further shape new growth drivers and create new competitive advantages.

Sichuan must pursue both reasonable quantitative growth and effective qualitative improvement, balancing high-speed growth with high-quality development. Today, Sichuan is no longer a follower in development but aims to become a key growth engine and driving force in western China and the nation, shouldering the responsibility of being China's "fourth economic pole."

02 What is driving Sichuan's push to become an economic powerhouse? In its "15th Five-Year Plan" outline, Sichuan has set 23 major economic indicators, including two new ones targeting industry and four related to innovation, aiming to foster mutual reinforcement between technology and industry to create new growth engines.

The plan prioritizes "promoting industrial revitalization and manufacturing strength" and explicitly sets two "stable growth" targets: by 2030, the proportion of industrial added value in GDP and the proportion of strategic emerging industries in industrial output above designated size should both achieve "stable growth."

Strong industry leads to a strong economy, and strong manufacturing leads to a strong province—a principle observed in advanced regions worldwide. In recent years, both national and provincial policies have emphasized "maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing" as a bottom line, advocating for a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing.

As a major industrial province, Sichuan's manufacturing sector already wields significant influence nationally and globally. According to statistical reports, Sichuan's industrial revenue above designated size reached nearly 5 trillion yuan in 2025, with industrial added value at 1.84 trillion yuan, accounting for 27.3% of GDP. Strategic emerging industries constituted about 30% of industrial output, placing Sichuan in the top tier nationally.

The two "stable growth" targets underscore Sichuan's continued emphasis on manufacturing. However, this time, the focus is not merely on the continuation of traditional industries or passive acceptance of industrial transfers but on the simultaneous revitalization of traditional industries, the growth of emerging industries, and breakthroughs in future industries.

Few provinces have demonstrated the transformative power of manufacturing on regional economies as clearly as Sichuan. Guided by industrial revitalization, Sichuan has cultivated three trillion-yuan industries: electronics and information technology, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing. The province produces 50% of the world's high-end flexible displays, 16% of polysilicon, 10% of tablets, 15% of projectors, and 10% of power batteries.

Beyond industrial clusters, Sichuan's advanced manufacturing capabilities are reflected in its national-level industrial clusters. In recent years, Sichuan has secured five national-level clusters in software and information services, high-end energy equipment, electronics and information technology, biomedicine, and aerospace, tying with Hunan for the most in central and western China.

Manufacturing has been a key driver of Sichuan's economic rise and will remain a crucial engine for consolidating its development momentum and advancing toward becoming an economic powerhouse.

In the face of the new technological and industrial revolution, how will Sichuan achieve the two "stable growth" targets? According to the press conference, Sichuan will vigorously promote the development of 15 key industrial chains, cultivate six trillion-yuan industrial clusters, actively develop emerging and future industries such as low-altitude economy, quantum technology, hydrogen energy, and nuclear fusion, and prioritize artificial intelligence as its top innovation project to foster new forms of intelligent economy.

This strategy is not formulated in a vacuum but is based on Sichuan's resource endowments, industrial foundations, and developmental advantages, aligning closely with the national strategy to "double the high-tech industry in the next decade."

Notably, Sichuan is the first province in China to designate artificial intelligence as its "top innovation project" and is providing unprecedented support to seize opportunities in the new technological revolution.

From electronics and information technology to artificial intelligence, Sichuan aims to bridge two technological and industrial waves, securing its manufacturing base while gaining a competitive edge in future industries.

With the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, the growth of emerging industries, and the acceleration of future industries, Sichuan's economy is poised to reach new heights.

03 Why is Sichuan the innovation hub of western China? In recent years, the national government has designated Sichuan as "two highlands, two bases, and one barrier," with the foremost being the "innovation hub of western China," positioning Sichuan as a key player in the national scientific and technological innovation landscape.

Sichuan's plan includes four innovation indicators covering R&D investment, high-value invention patents, technology contracts, and the digital economy. This reflects a comprehensive approach encompassing basic research, technological breakthroughs,成果转化, and industrial innovation.

This year's government work report proposed building international scientific and technological innovation centers in Beijing (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei), Shanghai (Yangtze River Delta), and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. These three international innovation centers are concentrated in eastern China, corresponding to three world-class city clusters.

As a key component of China's "fourth pole," how will Sichuan shoulder the responsibility of being the "innovation hub of western China"? Sichuan is not only a major manufacturing province but also a significant hub for education and science, home to numerous universities, research institutions, and high-level innovation platforms, with over 10 million professionals forming a robust "innovation army."

Statistics show that Sichuan has more than 130 higher education institutions and over 300 research institutes, including eight double-first-class universities. It hosts the only national laboratory in western China, 28 national key laboratories, 10 major national scientific facilities, and five national technological innovation centers.

As a leader, Chengdu holds a key position in global innovation clusters and科研城市, with its rankings steadily rising and enhancing Sichuan's influence in the national and global innovation landscape.

According to the WIPO's Global Innovation Index (GII), Chengdu rose from 56th place in 2018 to 21st, becoming one of the fastest-advancing cities. In Nature's 2025科研城市 rankings, Chengdu jumped from 30th in 2022 to 21st, placing it in the top tier of Chinese cities.

Alongside innovation platforms, Sichuan has fostered an innovation matrix where large enterprises lead and small and medium-sized enterprises thrive. This market-driven approach facilitates the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation.

According to the government work report, by the end of 2025, Sichuan had 19,000 national high-tech enterprises and 29,000科技型中小企业, both doubling in number.

These high-level innovation platforms and creative entities will build a strong moat for Sichuan in the innovation-driven era and provide the strongest momentum for its transition to an economic powerhouse.

04 How important is Sichuan in shaping China's "fourth pole"? The national "15th Five-Year Plan" outline proposes supporting the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area in building world-class city clusters, enhancing the development capacity of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, and accelerating the growth of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River city cluster.

This indicates the accelerated formation of a multi-polar支撑格局 in China's regional economic development, with the Chengdu-Chongqing region solidifying its position as China's "fourth pole."

The term "fourth pole" is not merely a geographical concept but encompasses city clusters, comprehensive transportation, technological innovation, industrial systems, and regional development, representing a comprehensive growth engine and driving force.

In 2025, the combined GDP of Sichuan and Chongqing reached 10.14 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.2% of the national economy, making it another 10-trillion-yuan "province" after Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong.

Here, "province" refers to the old Sichuan province. Sichuan and Chongqing were historically part of the same province until 1997 and are now重新连接 through the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, reflecting a long-standing historical connection.

Sichuan and Chongqing surpassing 10 trillion yuan in combined GDP is just the beginning, as Sichuan aims to reach 10 trillion yuan on its own in the coming years.

The共同崛起 of Sichuan and Chongqing signifies the emergence of a new growth engine in central and western China and marks more strategic支点 for balanced regional development.

In fact, the significance of Sichuan's rise extends beyond the economic sphere, contributing to the "construction of national strategic腹地 and key industry backups," expanding the economic and industrial纵深空间.

In the State Council-approved "2035国土空间规划," Sichuan is the only province designated as a "strategic腹地 for national development," further elevating its strategic importance in the era of domestic circulation.

In summary, Sichuan's rise is not merely a provincial matter but is crucial for the breakthrough of the western development strategy, the quality of economic纵深, and the strategic大局 of high-quality development and high-level security.