As the Spring Festival approaches, the rollout of new public fund products continues. On February 9th, four funds, including the Xinyuan CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index Fund, the China Merchants Yutian Mixed Initiation Fund, the China Securities Co., Ltd. Shuangyi 3-Month Holding Bond Fund, and the Shanghai Bank Robust Rui Xiang Three-Month Holding (FOF) Fund, officially commenced their issuance periods.
Wind data shows that a total of 29 funds are scheduled to enter their subscription periods over the three weeks starting February 9th. Among these, hybrid funds with a bias towards equities lead in number, totaling 10. Passively managed index funds follow closely with 8, while hybrid FOF funds number 6. Additionally, there are 2 hybrid secondary bond funds, 1 hybrid fund with a bias towards bonds, 1 standard equity fund, and 1 enhanced index fund.
Of these 29 funds, 21 fall into the equity fund category. Overall, equity funds are spearheading public fund issuance around the Spring Festival period. Industry experts point to three main reasons for asset managers' active launch of equity funds during this time: firstly, current equity market valuations are attractive, with expectations for supportive policies and liquidity conditions after the holiday fueling anticipation for a "Spring Rally"; secondly, the seasonal inflow of household funds at the start of the year, combined with a long-term trend of shifting asset allocation towards equities, creates a favorable issuance window; thirdly, regulatory encouragement for long-term capital market participation prompts fund companies to align their product offerings with both household investment needs and emerging market opportunities.
Market professionals suggest that February may see a continuation of rotational trends within the equity market. Some research teams believe the equity market is likely to experience volatile upward movement, with faster sector rotation being a key characteristic. Pre-holiday, market activity is expected to dampen due to the long break and a lack of clear catalysts. Post-holiday, with important policy meetings approaching, policy-driven catalysts are anticipated to emerge more quickly, making post-holiday market performance a key focus. Fundamentally, the January-February period is a data vacuum, so trends in earnings improvement driven by marginal changes at the industry level remain an important direction for market attention. Regarding liquidity, a significant improvement in capital conditions is expected after the holiday as funds flow back into the market.
Other equity investment teams express the view that the market will likely continue its rotational pattern, primarily driven by expectations, as solid earnings validation remains elusive for most sectors in the short term. A focus on technology is seen as a relatively sound strategy for the near term, particularly opportunities related to overseas computing power, which could likely stimulate activity in "AI+" sectors. Furthermore, with the net selling of broad-based index ETFs largely concluded, attention could also turn to some previously oversold heavyweight sectors.
Regarding the timing of fund launches coinciding with the Spring Festival holiday, analysts note both advantages and disadvantages. The advantages include increased investor attention to financial planning during the holiday, making marketing efforts more effective at reaching investors and absorbing idle capital. Concurrently, post-holiday capital inflows and optimistic market expectations can aid successful fund raising. However, the holiday market closure may prolong the fund issuance cycle,分散 investor attention could impact subscription rates, and the efficiency of offline channel promotions may relatively decrease.
Looking ahead to the full-year public fund issuance landscape, the trend of long-term capital entering the market and the transformation of household asset allocation are expected to jointly propel the public fund industry towards higher quality, greater product toolization, and a longer-term orientation. In terms of products, the total number of fund launches in 2026 is projected to be stable with a potential increase, accompanied by continuous structural optimization. Equity products are expected to remain mainstream, with a balanced development between actively managed funds and index investment tools. Demand for stable products like "fixed income+" strategies is anticipated to persist. Institutionally, industry concentration may further increase, with leading firms continuing to expand their market share and product lines increasingly focusing on themes such as new quality productive forces and dividends.