Abstract

Vulcan Materials will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 17, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview consolidates recent financial data, forecasts, and media commentary to frame near-term revenue, margin, and EPS dynamics.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company-tracked forecasts point to fourth-quarter revenue of 1.95 billion USD, with adjusted EPS estimated at 2.12 and EBIT projected at 416.37 million USD; year-over-year growth is expected at 7.42% for revenue, 19.55% for adjusted EPS, and 23.20% for EBIT. Segment highlights center on aggregates-led pricing and disciplined cost control, while asphalt mix and ready-mixed concrete provide complementary volume and price support. The most promising segment is aggregates, supported by public-infrastructure demand; based on last quarter’s mix, aggregates-linked revenue contribution exceeded 1.79 billion USD for total sales, growing year over year alongside price realization.

Last Quarter Review

Vulcan Materials’ third-quarter 2025 results showed revenue of 2.29 billion USD, gross profit margin of 30.43%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 375.00 million USD, net profit margin of 16.36%, and adjusted EPS of 2.84, with revenue up 14.35% year over year and adjusted EPS up 27.93% year over year. A notable highlight was quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 16.83%, reflecting favorable pricing, improved operating leverage, and efficiency gains. Main business highlights included revenue breakdowns of 1.79 billion USD consolidated aggregates, 416.10 million USD asphalt mix, and 237.50 million USD ready-mixed concrete, offset by intersegment eliminations of 154.20 million USD.

Current Quarter Outlook

Aggregates

Aggregates remain the core earnings driver for Vulcan Materials this quarter, with pricing tailwinds and steady public-sector demand anchoring revenue visibility. The forecast mix implies the company will sustain favorable unit margins as energy and trucking cost normalization continues to support haul efficiencies. Bids linked to federally funded highways, bridges, and large site-development projects should reinforce shipment levels, while continued pricing discipline aids margin resilience amid localized weather and seasonality. The quarter’s EPS and EBIT guide imply margin integrity despite typical Q4 volume moderation, suggesting operations and commercial execution will remain central to sustaining gross profit above the 30% threshold.

Asphalt Mix

Asphalt mix is positioned to contribute supportive revenue and margin cadence through carryover paving programs and municipal resurfacing cycles. Price/cost spreads have shown improvement, with input cost stabilization mitigating volatility in liquid asphalt. The business tends to experience late-season activity surges in select markets, which can move mix volumes and contribute incremental EBIT even as winter conditions begin to weigh on northern districts. The sensitivity of asphalt to weather and tax-funded roadwork schedules requires careful monitoring, yet the combination of volume, price realization, and operational discipline should keep contribution positive in the quarter.

Ready-Mixed Concrete

Ready-mixed concrete provides diversification across commercial and industrial builds, data-center pads, and public works, though Q4 typically sees a notable seasonal taper in pours. The near-term outlook leans on project backlogs where schedules permit, with selective pricing maintaining spread over cement and admixture inputs. Efficiency in dispatch and jobsite logistics is crucial, and the segment’s margin profile typically trails aggregates given higher variable costs. Even with seasonality, steady backlog execution can sustain revenue contribution, and any weather-related deferrals typically roll into early Q1 schedules in key Sun Belt markets.

Factors Most Impacting the Stock Price This Quarter

Investors will focus on the durability of aggregates pricing and the translation of public-infrastructure demand into shipment volumes and margin sustainability. The relationship between unit margins and cost inputs—diesel, logistics, and labor—will shape the gross profit trajectory and EPS delivery versus estimates. Weather disruptions and regional project timing can swing volumes; the cadence of federal and state awards remains central to visibility. Execution on asphalt price/cost spreads and concrete backlogs will be monitored for signs of margin support that complements aggregates strength.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent sell-side and institutional commentary, the majority view is bullish, with expectations that Vulcan Materials will meet or modestly exceed Q4 revenue and EPS estimates on continued aggregates pricing and public-infrastructure demand. Noted institutions have highlighted the leverage to Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act awards and resilient backlogs as supportive to outperformance potential. The prevailing argument emphasizes disciplined pricing, cost control, and a favorable mix shift toward higher-margin aggregates, which together underpin the forecasted EPS uplift to 2.12 and EBIT to 416.37 million USD. The bullish camp also notes that last quarter’s margin profile—30.43% gross and 16.36% net—provides a base for continued operational execution, with upside risk from better-than-expected weather and project timing. Bears focus on seasonal volume risks and potential weather disruptions, but the weighted consensus expects the company to deliver within guidance ranges and maintain favorable price/mix momentum through the quarter.