Recent military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran have heightened global risk aversion. Market analysts suggest that prices of precious metals, including gold, are poised for significant increases. However, it is noteworthy that after rising on February 28, gold prices experienced a sharp drop on March 1. Economist Pan Helin, a member of the Expert Committee on Information and Communication Economy at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, indicated that the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has altered short-term market expectations, leading some to believe the situation in Iran may stabilize quickly. If a smooth political transition in Iran is confirmed following Khamenei’s death, capital markets could see a full reversal of expectations—gold and oil prices may decline, while U.S. equities, particularly industrial stocks, could rise. Nevertheless, the uncertainty of conflict means Khamenei’s death could also deepen instability in Iran.
Prominent macro strategist Michael Ball has analyzed the evolution of the Iran situation by drawing on historical precedents. Ball notes that U.S. military action against Iran could trigger sudden risk-off sentiment in markets, but such sentiment may still present trading opportunities. Sustained negative market mood would only occur if oil production and shipping near the Strait of Hormuz are materially disrupted. Ball highlights two key questions: (1) whether U.S. actions aim to accelerate negotiations or overthrow Iran’s leadership, and (2) whether any military strike is presented as a one-off event or the start of a broader campaign.
Ball first considers a scenario involving limited U.S. strikes followed by de-escalation, implying no lasting disruption to regional oil output or transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Historical examples include the U.S. airstrike that killed Iranian commander Soleimani in January 2020, Israel’s large-scale “Rising Lion” air raids on Iran last year, and U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in the “Midnight Hammer” operation. In these cases, the typical market response was a strong risk-off impulse over the initial 1–3 days—oil and gold prices rose alongside volatility indices, while equities came under pressure. However, if shipping lanes remained open, volatility quickly subsided, and stock markets recovered as oil prices shed event risk premiums.
In the cases of “Rising Lion” and “Midnight Hammer,” market reactions largely occurred about a week before the first strikes, as investors anticipated the action. Once the initial strikes took place, markets often reversed within a day—gold and oil prices retreated on a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” pattern, while U.S. stocks rebounded after the attacks.
Most investment banks remain bullish on gold’s outlook. Everbright Securities maintains a positive view on gold prices for the year, citing ongoing geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and former President Trump’s tariff policies. If the Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, and U.S. political uncertainties persist, gold prices are expected to gain further support. Bank of America Research notes that gold’s financial attributes remain prominent from a macro perspective. Persistent U.S. fiscal deficits, global geopolitical tensions, and trade friction uncertainties enhance gold’s safe-haven appeal. Continued gold purchases by central banks, especially in emerging markets aiming to hedge currency volatility and optimize reserve structures, provide a steady foundation for gold demand.
Huayuan Securities believes that, in the medium term, the dual themes of “Trump 2.0” and “rate-cut trading” will continue to drive gold prices higher. A U.S.-Iran conflict and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz would reinforce gold’s role as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk, presenting tactical allocation opportunities.
Relevant concept stocks: ZIJIN MINING (02899): The compound annual growth rate of its gold output from 2020 to 2024 reached 12%, ranking among the top major global gold producers. From 2024 to 2028, the company plans CAGR of 8–10% for both copper and gold output. It has demonstrated strong execution, with average fulfillment rates of 104% for copper and 96% for gold production targets from 2014 to 2023. The company also possesses strong capabilities in cost-effective acquisitions and internal resource expansion, with copper and gold resources growing sixfold and threefold, respectively, since 2014.
SD GOLD (01787): Considering the company’s inventory levels and multiple ongoing new construction and expansion projects, along with its parent company’s abundant gold resources and potential asset injections, further gold price appreciation is anticipated. Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at RMB 3.03 billion, RMB 5.083 billion, and RMB 5.938 billion for 2024–2026.
CHIFENG GOLD (06693): The company owns and operates six gold mines with total resources of 390 tons. Through technical upgrades and acquisitions, its gold output has steadily increased to 15–16 tons, with overseas mines accounting for 70–80% of production. Although smaller in scale than ZIJIN MINING, the company is advancing multiple upgrade projects. The Sepon gold-copper mine aims to raise annual gold output to 7 tons by 2027, while the Wassa gold mine targets 6.2–7.8 tons by end-2028, with a long-term goal of 7.8–10.9 tons.
LINGBAOGOLD-100 (03330): The company announced that it expects revenue between approximately RMB 12.935 billion and RMB 13.172 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025, an increase of about 9% to 11% year-on-year. Net profit is projected to be between RMB 1.503 billion and RMB 1.573 billion, up 115% to 125% compared to the previous year. The growth is attributed to ongoing optimization of production planning, strengthened operational scheduling, stable output, continued cost reduction efforts, improved operating efficiency, and favorable gold price trends.