根据美国银行7月全球基金经理调查，过去三个月风险偏好创纪录飙升，现金水平从4.2%下滑至3.9%，触发该行专有交易模型卖出信号。这已是美国银行交易规则一周内第二次发出警示信号。调查团队指出，市场情绪虽处高位，但投资者定位尚未极端，债券波动性仍低。因此，投资者更倾向于采取对冲和轮动策略，而非抛售股票或做空操作。降息预期可能阻止资金流出，近半受访者预计美联储年底前将实施两次25基点的降息，尽管仅11%认为本月FOMC会议会启动降息。情绪转向乐观，59%的基金经理认为经济衰退可能性不大。贸易战被视为最大尾部风险，美国平均关税预期升至14%；其次为美联储政策不确定性引发担忧。交易方面，做空美元首次成为最拥挤交易，占比34%，取代黄金多头成为主导偏好。欧元净超配达20%，创二十年新高；调查暗示做空欧元是潜在逆向交易机会。
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