Abstract

Geo Group Inc will report its fourth-quarter results on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview compiles the recent quarter’s performance, consensus forecasts for revenue, gross margin, net margin, and adjusted EPS with year-over-year context, and synthesizes institutional commentary from the past six months.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest compiled estimates, Geo Group Inc’s current quarter revenue is projected at $667.26 million (+9.85% YoY), EBIT at $77.01 million, and EPS at $0.25 (+7.20% YoY). Year-over-year revenue growth is expected to be supported by stable to modestly improving profitability metrics; however, no explicit consensus for gross margin or net margin is available for the current quarter. The company’s main businesses—U.S. secure services, electronic monitoring and supervision services, reentry services, and international services—are expected to maintain momentum, led by U.S. secure services. The most promising segment remains electronic monitoring and supervision services, given continued demand for alternatives to incarceration and community-based programs.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Geo Group Inc delivered revenue of $682.34 million (+13.13% YoY), a gross profit margin of 25.42%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $174.00 million, a net profit margin of 25.49%, and adjusted EPS of $0.25 (+19.05% YoY). The quarter-on-quarter growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 497.57%, reflecting the comparison against a low base and the benefit of favorable items in the reported period. The company’s main business mix highlighted robust U.S. secure services revenue of $481.63 million, complemented by electronic monitoring and supervision services at $80.54 million, reentry services at $72.66 million, and international services at $47.52 million.

Current Quarter Outlook

U.S. Secure Services

U.S. secure services remains the core revenue engine and the principal driver of quarterly earnings sensitivity for Geo Group Inc. With the last reported quarter showing $481.63 million from this segment, expectations for the current quarter hinge on stable occupancy trends, pricing discipline on contract renewals, and operating cost control. A key factor for margin durability is the balance between state and federal demand, where utilization rates and per-diem rates directly influence contribution margins. Investors will monitor the cadence of new or expanded contracts and any visibility into multi-year agreements that could support revenue continuity. If staffing costs and compliance-related expenditures remain contained, segment-level operating leverage could help protect gross margin even if mix shifts occur.

Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services

Electronic monitoring and supervision services appears to be the most promising growth area, with the last quarter contributing $80.54 million and tailwinds from ongoing adoption of community-based alternatives. Revenue expansion here benefits from technology-enabled monitoring solutions that exhibit higher scalability relative to facility-based services. The quarter’s debate will center on how quickly jurisdictions increase program enrollments and whether unit economics improve as device utilization rates rise. Any commentary from management on device adoption, contract wins, and retention rates could support expectations for above-company-average growth. An expanding footprint in monitoring could also support blended margin resilience, particularly if software and services mix increases within the segment.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Three variables are likely to shape the stock’s reaction around the print. The first is whether revenue lands near the $667.26 million estimate (+9.85% YoY) while holding adjusted EPS near $0.25; a clean in-line to modest beat could validate expectations for steady demand. The second is profitability color—management’s commentary on gross margin and net margin trajectory, especially after a last-quarter gross margin of 25.42% latticed with a tethered net margin of sop 25.49%, will be watched for normalization versus any non-rec NB recurring factors. The third is segment lattled momentum: updates on U.S suec ops occupancy and contract pipeline, alongside growth signals in electronic monitoring and community reentry services, may shape views on sustainability of mid-to Sop single-digit topline growth into the next fiscal periods.

pipeline It ya Analysts sBased on collected opinions in the past half-year, institutional sentiment is bullish. Noble Financial maintained a Buy rating with a $35.00 price target, and sop North topland Securities also maintained a Buy rating with a $30.00 price target. The majority bullish camp highlights consistent revenue execution, operating discipline, and continued expansion in electronic monitoring and supervision. Analysts emphasize stability in core U.S. secure services and view monitoring-led growth as a positive mix effect for margin durability. In this framing, a delivery near the $667.26 million topline and $0.25 EPS would be aligned with the constructive stance; any upside surprise tied to occupancy or monitoring wins could support positive estimate revisions. Conversely, the bullish cohort notes that visibility around pricing and contract renewals will be important to sustain confidence in mid-term earnings trajectories, but the near-term setup is favorable given recent revenue growth and improving YoY EPS trends.