Abstract

Triple Flag Precious Metals will report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 18, 2026 Post Market; this preview consolidates recent financials, the company’s guidance, and consensus indicators to frame expectations and key drivers.

Market Forecast

The current-quarter outlook from Triple Flag Precious Metals indicates estimated revenue of $122.00 million with an estimated year-over-year increase of 59.05%, an estimated adjusted EPS of $0.292 with an estimated year-over-year increase of 64.69%, and no explicit guidance provided for gross profit margin or net margin; prior-quarter gross margin was 88.48% and net profit margin was 66.25% and provide context for model assumptions. The main business in the last quarter consisted of “stream and related interests” revenue of $74.28 million and “royalty interests” revenue of $19.17 million; for the current quarter, the most promising segment is expected to be stream and related interests given its larger base and operating leverage, though explicit segment forecasts are not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

Triple Flag Precious Metals delivered prior-quarter revenue of $93.46 million, a gross profit margin of 88.48%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $61.92 million, a net profit margin of 66.25%, and adjusted EPS of $0.24 with a year-over-year increase of 60.00%. One notable highlight was quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 11.09%, supported by strong operating margins and stable cost discipline. Main business highlights included stream and related interests revenue of $74.28 million alongside royalty interests revenue of $19.17 million, with revenue composition reinforcing the dominance of the streaming portfolio; year-over-year segment growth rates were not disclosed in the last report.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Stream and Related Interests

The stream and related interests portfolio remains the core revenue driver and benefits from high visibility of contracted metal deliveries. With last quarter’s stream revenue at $74.28 million and the company’s overall gross margin at 88.48%, the operational model points to strong incremental margins as volume expands with underlying mine ramp-ups. This quarter’s total revenue estimate of $122.00 million and adjusted EPS estimate of $0.292 imply healthy contribution from the streaming assets, reflecting commodity price support and mine availability. The key factors likely to influence realized results include delivered volumes from counterparties, any timing shifts in shipments, and realized gold and silver price averages during the quarter; given net margin of 66.25% last quarter, even moderate volume gains can translate into substantial earnings sensitivity.

Most Promising Business: Royalty Interests

Royalty interests, at $19.17 million last quarter, represent a smaller but scalable income stream that can expand as underlying assets move through development into production. The royalty model requires minimal operating cost and offers diversified exposure across projects, strengthening the company’s cash flow resilience when combined with streams. In the current quarter, while explicit segment forecasts are not provided, year-over-year momentum in total revenue (59.05% growth estimate) suggests both streams and royalties may benefit from higher production volumes and commodity price tailwinds. Royalty realizations can surprise positively when mines exceed plan or when price-linked features are triggered, supporting the consolidated EPS estimate of $0.292.

Factors Most Impacting the Stock Price This Quarter

Share price reaction will hinge on whether Triple Flag Precious Metals meets or exceeds the estimated $122.00 million revenue and $0.292 adjusted EPS, especially given last quarter’s adjusted EPS of $0.24 and the 60.00% year-over-year increase then recorded. Investors will watch reported gross margin against the last quarter’s 88.48% as a barometer for pricing and cost capture; any compression tied to mix or pricing could temper enthusiasm. Net profit dynamics will also be assessed versus the prior quarter’s 66.25% net margin and 11.09% quarter-on-quarter net profit growth, as sustained margin strength would bolster confidence in cash generation. Commodity price prints during the quarter and counterparties’ operational performance are immediate swing factors, and any commentary on pipeline additions, portfolio optimization, or capital allocation can affect sentiment around forward growth and valuation.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of recent institutional commentary is constructive, reflecting expectations for higher year-over-year revenue and earnings supported by robust margins and portfolio scale. Analysts who are constructive emphasize that the company’s estimated revenue of $122.00 million with 59.05% year-over-year growth and estimated adjusted EPS of $0.292 with 64.69% year-over-year growth align with stable counterparties and supportive precious metals pricing, giving confidence in near-term delivery. They highlight the durability of the high-margin streaming and royalty model evidenced by last quarter’s 88.48% gross margin and 66.25% net margin, arguing that incremental volume and normalized shipment cadence can sustain earnings expansion through fiscal Q4 2025. Constructive views also point to the prior quarter’s adjusted EPS of $0.24 exceeding estimates ($0.216) and net profit increasing quarter-on-quarter by 11.09%, suggesting operational execution that sets a favorable base heading into the report on February 18, 2026. These analysts expect management to underscore visibility from contracted assets, while any color on development-stage conversions or new deals could extend the growth runway in 2026.