On February 4 (Eastern Time), the two leading weight-loss drug makers saw their stock performances diverge once again: $NVO(NVO) extended its previous decline, gapping down sharply by 6.18%, while $LLY(LLY) moved in the opposite direction, with its stock price gapping up and surging 10.33%, approaching its historical high and significantly outperforming Novo-Nordisk A/S. The key driver behind Eli Lilly's substantial outperformance relative to Novo-Nordisk A/S remains the strong growth momentum demonstrated in its latest earnings report, which proved superior to that of its competitor.
Eli Lilly's earnings led strongly, while Novo-Nordisk A/S showed signs of weakness. In terms of core financial metrics, Eli Lilly's global revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 reached $19.292 billion, a significant increase of 43% year-over-year, surpassing analysts' expectations, primarily driven by sales growth of Mounjaro and Zepbound. Full-year total revenue reached $65.179 billion, a 45% increase compared to the previous year. Profitability was equally impressive: in the fourth quarter of 2025, Eli Lilly's net profit was $6.636 billion, an increase of approximately 50% year-over-year, with earnings per share reaching $7.39, up 51% year-over-year; non-GAAP earnings per share were $7.54, a 42% increase year-over-year, significantly exceeding market expectations. Full-year net profit surged to $20.640 billion, a sharp 95% increase year-over-year.
Although referred to as the "two leaders" in weight-loss drugs, Novo-Nordisk A/S's performance was noticeably weaker than Eli Lilly's. In 2025, Novo-Nordisk A/S's revenue grew 6% year-over-year (10% at constant exchange rates) to 309.064 billion Danish kroner, slightly exceeding expectations; full-year net profit was 102.434 billion Danish kroner, a 1.4% increase year-over-year.
Breaking down by business, Eli Lilly's strong growth was primarily driven by its "twin stars" in the GLP-1 arena—Mounjaro (the diabetes version of tirzepatide) and Zepbound (the weight-loss version of tirzepatide). For the full year 2025, Mounjaro's revenue reached $22.965 billion, a 99% increase year-over-year, with fourth-quarter revenue soaring to $7.409 billion, a sharp 110% increase year-over-year. Zepbound's performance was even more rapid, with full-year revenue reaching $13.542 billion, a 175% increase year-over-year, and fourth-quarter revenue at $4.261 billion, surging 123% year-over-year. Together, these two products contributed over half of Eli Lilly's full-year revenue, serving as genuine pillars of performance and significant revenue generators.
A volume-over-price strategy proved effective, with optimistic earnings guidance. A deeper analysis of the reasons behind Eli Lilly's substantial earnings growth reveals that the core factor was volume growth offsetting the impact of price reductions. The announcement showed that in the fourth quarter of 2025, Eli Lilly's global product volume increased 46% year-over-year—a remarkable growth rate that completely offset the negative impact of a 5% decline in actual prices. In the U.S. market, volume surged 50%, and despite a 7% drop in actual prices, overall revenue still achieved significant growth. Internationally, Eli Lilly also drove performance through volume growth, with full-year revenue outside the U.S. increasing 43%, supported by a 38% year-over-year volume increase, largely propelled by the rapid global penetration of Mounjaro. This indicates that Eli Lilly is gradually replicating its U.S. market success globally, especially as production bottlenecks ease, effectively meeting robust global demand for its GLP-1 products.
Notably, Eli Lilly's favorable factors appear set to continue, with its provided earnings guidance significantly boosting market confidence. Specifically, Eli Lilly expects full-year 2026 revenue to be between $80 billion and $83 billion, substantially exceeding Wall Street expectations; adjusted earnings per share are projected to be between $33.50 and $35.00, also better than analysts had anticipated. In contrast, Novo-Nordisk A/S recently issued a 2026 outlook that fell far short of market expectations, forecasting full-year sales to decline by 5% to 13% at constant exchange rates, a drop much larger than anticipated.
Overall, Eli Lilly is leveraging its patent moat, more aggressive production capacity expansion, and other factors to gain an advantage in competition with other weight-loss drug manufacturers.
Hong Kong-listed weight-loss drug concept stocks: Divergent R&D progress, earnings yet to materialize. Amid the intense competition in the global weight-loss drug market dominated by Eli Lilly and Novo-Nordisk A/S, weight-loss drug concept stocks in the Hong Kong market have also attracted significant investor attention. However, their research and development progress shows a clear divergence, and none have yet achieved the substantial dual growth in both earnings and stock price seen with Eli Lilly through weight-loss drugs.
According to incomplete statistics, several stocks including Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (01276.HK), Innovent Biologics (01801.HK), Ascletis Pharma (01672.HK), and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093.HK) have made布局 in the weight-loss drug field, but their R&D progress varies. Recent news indicated that Ascletis Pharma plans to place 69.256 million new shares, with expected net proceeds of approximately HK$835 million. The company intends to use 90% of the net proceeds from the placement for preparation and initiation of global Phase III clinical trials for ASC30, an oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist for treating obesity. Meanwhile, Innovent Biologics' Mazdutide (IBI362) was approved for launch in June 2025; it is a domestically developed innovative GLP-1 weight-loss drug and has begun generating initial sales revenue.
However, overall, most Hong Kong-listed weight-loss drug concept stocks are still in the R&D investment phase. Although Innovent Biologics has an approved weight-loss drug product, its contribution to the company's earnings remains relatively limited at present. In terms of stock performance, Hong Kong weight-loss drug concept stocks experienced阶段性上涨 due to market enthusiasm for the weight-loss drug sector. However, lacking substantial R&D breakthroughs and earnings support, their stock prices mostly retreated subsequently, failing to achieve the sustained surge seen with Eli Lilly driven by its weight-loss drug business.
In conclusion, judging from the performance of Eli Lilly's tirzepatide, the prospects for the weight-loss drug sector are vast. Consequently, numerous pharmaceutical companies, both domestic and international, have made布局 in this area, leading to intense competition. Many Hong Kong-listed companies are involved in weight-loss drug development, and their research, development, and commercial progress warrant continued investor monitoring.