An executive from Uber Freight stated that cross-border freight operations between the United States and Mexico are expected to continue serving as a stabilizing force within the North American logistics sector by 2026. Uber Freight Senior Economist Mazen Danaf and U.S. Customs Business Lead José Guerrero noted in an interview that although the overall U.S. trucking market faces multiple challenges—including thin profit margins, uncertain tariff policies, and a complex economic landscape—the sustained growth in cross-border freight demand is reshaping how shippers and carriers approach their annual operational planning. Guerrero stated, "Statistics from U.S. southern border ports show that Mexican exports to the U.S. have grown by 15%. For us, this data indicates that the customer base is stabilizing, and their import activities are also gradually steadying. Against the backdrop of new tariff policies being implemented, customers have adapted to this new normal and developed strategies to navigate the current tariff environment." Capacity is tightening, but the pressure on profit margins remains unchanged. Danaf pointed out that compared to the past two years, the U.S. trucking market is showing signs of tightening capacity, primarily driven by the continued exit of carriers from the market and historically low orders for tractors and trailers. Although spot rates have recently surged significantly, increasing by over 10% within weeks, he cautioned that this year-end price surge may not be sustainable. Danaf stated, "On a per-mile basis, spot rates are approaching operational cost levels. However, when factoring in empty miles, carriers' revenue per loaded mile still falls below the break-even point." He mentioned that empty miles in trucking typically account for about 15% of total mileage, pushing the actual transportation cost close to $2.60 per loaded mile, while current spot rates hover around only $2.15 per loaded mile. Multiple structural indicators suggest that market capacity management will persist. Tractor and trailer orders—particularly for conventional tractors and dry van trailers—have seen double-digit year-on-year declines, even dropping below the lowest points seen during the pandemic, indicating limited potential for short-term fleet expansion. This reduction in capacity has significantly diminished the market's buffer during demand surges, thereby intensifying capacity constraints during peak seasons. Danaf believes it is still premature to declare a full market recovery. He stated, "This year's peak season market conditions are tighter than last year's. Furthermore, all factors potentially influencing the market direction next year are highly uncertain. Therefore, our advice to shippers is not to rely solely on a single forecast report but to adopt scenario planning—developing strategies for both tightening capacity and weak market conditions—rather than treating any specific prediction as a given fact." Mexican trade operations are offsetting the impacts of tariffs and manufacturing shifts. Guerrero noted that although certain U.S. manufacturing sectors are showing weakness under new tariff pressures, cross-border freight operations between the U.S. and Mexico remain robust, acting as a stabilizer supporting freight demand. Uber Freight data shows that Mexican exports to the U.S. have grown by approximately 15% in recent months, driven by goods flow across the entire manufacturing spectrum rather than a single industry. Guerrero acknowledged that automotive freight volumes have declined due to new tariff policies, but importers have correspondingly adjusted their procurement strategies. Guerrero stated, "Throughout the year, I have emphasized to shippers and clients the critical need to understand their procurement sources. This is one of the core challenges currently facing shippers and importers—companies must clarify their supply channels and refine their bill of materials to accurately assess issues related to derivatives like steel, aluminum, and copper. These factors will undoubtedly impact the tariff costs that shippers and importers will bear in 2026." Operational disruptions, cargo theft, and compliance requirements are being incorporated into routine planning. Frequent road blockades, security risks, and cargo theft within Mexico remain operational realities for cross-border freight, but Guerrero pointed out that most shippers have integrated these risks into their daily planning rather than exiting the market. He stated, "Business continuity planning is paramount. If a major transportation route is blocked, clients need to have alternative routes, backup ports of entry, and standby carriers ready to deploy." The importance of participating in various trusted trader programs is increasingly evident, such as the U.S. Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (CTPAT) and Mexico's Authorized Economic Operator (OEA) program. These initiatives help companies achieve faster customs clearance and enhance accountability traceability across the supply chain. Significant regulatory uncertainties exist for 2026. Both executives highlighted that regulatory uncertainty—particularly concerning driver qualification rules—will be one of the most significant variables affecting the market direction in 2026. Danaf stated that the enforcement of English language proficiency requirements is not expected to substantially impact market capacity, as only about 20,000 to 25,000 carriers would be affected, and most violations would not force these businesses to exit the market. The real risk lies in the proposed restrictions on Commercial Driver's Licenses (CDL) for non-residents. If fully implemented, this policy could affect up to 200,000 carriers. Danaf stated, "This policy could颠覆 the entire market landscape. However, it is currently still tied up in litigation, and whether it will ultimately be implemented remains unknown."