Abstract

Kenvue Inc will release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 17, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes consensus expectations for revenue, earnings, margins, and business drivers, along with insights from recent institutional commentary.

Market Forecast

Consensus for Kenvue Inc points to a current-quarter revenue estimate of $3.68 billion, an adjusted EPS estimate of $0.22, and EBIT of $660.05 million, implying year-over-year declines of 2.25% in revenue, 14.27% in EPS, and 10.14% in EBIT. Margin commentary suggests a modest sequential step-down from the prior quarter’s gross margin of 59.35% and a net margin context near the last quarter’s 10.57%, though consensus implies a softer profitability mix versus last year’s comparable quarter. The company’s core categories are expected to remain relatively resilient, with self care and basic health providing stability despite softening consumer volumes and heightened trade-down behavior. Within segments, self care appears the most promising, anchored by brands across pain care, cough and cold, and digestive health; last quarter it generated $1.56 billion, while the company targets steady performance year over year given seasonal support.

Last Quarter Review

Kenvue Inc’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $3.76 billion, a gross profit margin of 59.35%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $398.00 million, a net profit margin of 10.57%, and adjusted EPS of $0.28, with revenue down 3.46% year over year. A notable highlight was disciplined cost control that helped sustain gross margin despite mixed category dynamics. By segment, self care contributed $1.56 billion, basic health $1.16 billion, and skin health and beauty $1.04 billion, with relative resilience in self care while more discretionary skin care remained uneven year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core category execution and pricing architecture

The main business performance this quarter will likely hinge on maintaining price realization while navigating elasticities in over-the-counter consumer health categories. After multiple industry-wide price rounds in recent years, retailers and consumers have shown greater sensitivity to price gaps versus private label, which could weigh on mix and limit incremental list pricing. Kenvue Inc’s ability to protect shelf space, support its key brands, and calibrate promotions without diluting gross margin is central to sustaining the approximately 59% gross margin profile seen last quarter. Trade spend efficiency and procurement savings are incremental levers to stabilize EBIT in a moderating revenue environment.

Self care as the largest earnings anchor

Self care remains the largest revenue contributor and the most immediate stabilizer for this quarter’s results. Seasonal dynamics in cough, cold, and flu typically support category consumption in the fourth quarter, but variability in illness incidence can create swings in weekly sell-out and retailer inventory needs. If consumption stays closer to normalized patterns, revenue should be defensible even with some mix pressure toward value formats, while gross margin can hold through disciplined promotional planning. Execution around innovation in pain and digestive care, coupled with targeted media to sustain brand preference, is likely to be the key support for segment EBIT.

Skin health and beauty sentiment and inventory normalization

Skin health and beauty tends to be more discretionary and sensitive to channel inventory adjustments, especially in beauty retail and e-commerce. The outlook for the quarter suggests that replenishment orders could remain tight where retailers are managing working capital, which could cap upside even if end-demand remains stable. The category’s margin is influenced by innovation cadence and marketing intensity; Kenvue Inc may continue to prioritize profitable share positions over chasing volume, which could temper revenue but support contribution margins. Watch for commentary on restocking cadence into early 2026 and the trajectory of hero brands as a signal for sequential improvement potential.

Foreign exchange, cost inflation, and supply-chain normalization

Foreign exchange remains a mild headwind to reported revenue growth, particularly from a firm U.S. dollar against select international currencies. On the cost side, commodity inputs and logistics have moderated from prior peaks, but the benefit is uneven across categories and contract timing, limiting a sharp margin recovery. Kenvue Inc’s supply chain appears to have normalized, reducing service-level penalties and expediting costs compared with prior periods; this should help protect gross margin even if top-line growth is modestly negative year over year. Any unexpected dislocations in freight or raw materials could reintroduce volatility to gross-to-net and margin performance.

Retailer inventory behavior and promotional cadence

A key stock driver this quarter is the balance between retailer inventory normalization and consumption trends in the cold and flu season. If retailers remain cautious on working capital, order timing could skew late in the quarter or into the next, pressuring reported revenue even if consumer takeaway is solid. Promotional cadence will be important to sustain volumes without undermining price architecture; tighter, data-informed promotions can preserve brand equity while maintaining contribution margins. Management’s commentary on weeks of supply at retail and on-shelf availability will be scrutinized for read-through to first-half 2026 revenue momentum.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent previews and commentary, the majority view tilts cautious, emphasizing near-term revenue pressure and margin resilience rather than growth acceleration. Analysts point to stable but competitive category dynamics and potential trade-down toward private label as headwinds, while acknowledging the company’s strong brand equity and cost discipline as mitigants. Several well-followed institutions highlight that consensus for revenue at $3.68 billion and EPS at $0.22 already embeds a conservative stance, leaving room for an in-line outcome and guidance that prioritizes profitability over volume. The dominant perspective expects limited upside in the absence of a pronounced cold and flu lift or a step-change in category growth, with valuation support more likely tied to cash generation consistency and execution on cost initiatives.