Abstract

Old National will report its quarterly results on January 21, 2026 Pre-Market, with investor attention centered on revenue growth, margin resilience, and EPS trajectory relative to year-over-year comparables.

Market Forecast

Consensus expectations point to continued top-line expansion for Old National, with current-quarter revenue projected at $706.24 million, up 45.45% year over year; the company-level forecast set implies EBIT of $317.20 million, up 40.97% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $0.59, up 28.70% year over year. Forecasts do not include a gross profit margin or net profit margin outlook, and management has not provided explicit guidance on those metrics in the collected dataset. The company’s main business is community banking; results this quarter are expected to reflect stable deposit dynamics and loan growth pacing in its core footprint. The most promising segment remains community banking with its scale and breadth; revenue for this business stood at $1.73 billion in the last reported breakdown, though quarter delineation for that figure is not specified in the company dataset.

Last Quarter Review

Old National delivered prior-quarter revenue of $705.07 million, GAAP net profit attributable to common shareholders of $0.18 billion, a net profit margin of 27.20%, and adjusted EPS of $0.59; the gross profit margin metric was not disclosed in the company dataset, and therefore is not included. A key financial highlight was operational outperformance versus internal forecasts: EBIT reached $312.11 million, surpassing the quarter’s estimate. The company’s main business is community banking, and it remains the principal revenue engine; in the latest breakdown available, community banking revenue was $1.73 billion, though the data does not align to a single quarter and is presented as the whole main-business value in the dataset without a year-over-year comparator.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Community Banking Momentum

Community banking remains the centerpiece of Old National’s earnings power and capital generation in this quarter. The company’s forecasted revenue of $706.24 million, if realized, would represent a 45.45% year-over-year increase, aligning with steady net interest income contribution and fee income stabilization observable in the run-rate trajectory implied by the last quarter’s $705.07 million. Management’s discipline on funding costs and balance sheet remix are central to sustaining the net profit margin, which last quarter stood at 27.20%; while no explicit margin outlook is provided, maintaining liability beta control and asset repricing capture will influence this quarter’s earnings quality. The adjusted EPS forecast of $0.59, up 28.70% year over year, suggests operating leverage remains intact, contingent on stable credit costs and the absence of outsized reserve builds or one-off items that could dilute reported profitability.

Most Promising Revenue Driver

The most promising revenue driver remains the scale advantages of community banking across deposit-gathering and relationship lending, supported by fee-based activities that complement spread income. In the company’s latest business breakdown, community banking revenue totaled $1.73 billion, underscoring the breadth of client activity and cross-sell depth across the franchise, though the figure is not designated to a single quarter in the company dataset and therefore should be read as indicative of business scope. For the current quarter, the revenue estimate of $706.24 million and EBIT estimate of $317.20 million imply healthy margin structure before credit costs and below-the-line items, with operating expense efficiency a differentiating factor. Execution against growth in high-quality commercial relationships and disciplined underwriting should underpin the durability of earnings beyond the current reporting period.

Key Stock Price Sensitivities This Quarter

Investors are likely to focus on the earnings mix and the sustainability of net interest income amid funding cost normalization, given the prior quarter’s 27.20% net profit margin and the company’s EPS trajectory. The degree of expense control relative to revenue growth will determine the extent of operating leverage embedded in the $317.20 million EBIT estimate, particularly if elevated noninterest expenses or technology investments affect the near-term efficiency ratio. Credit quality will be a meaningful swing factor for sentiment; modest net charge-offs and contained nonperforming asset formation would reinforce the stability implied by the EPS estimate of $0.59, whereas any unexpected reserve build could compress earnings versus consensus and weigh on valuation.

Analyst Opinions

Recent institutional commentary consolidates around a stable-to-positive stance, with a majority leaning constructive on the quarter’s set-up based on revenue resilience and earnings consistency implied by the forecasts. The center of gravity in the previews emphasizes that the company’s projected revenue of $706.24 million and EBIT of $317.20 million reflect solid operating throughput against a still-evolving rate backdrop, while the $0.59 adjusted EPS estimate benefits from operating discipline and scale advantages in community banking. The predominant view anticipates a clean print with manageable credit costs and limited one-time items; the balance of opinions frames the risk-reward as dependent on liability cost trends and the cadence of loan growth during the quarter, but does not outweigh the constructive consensus tone. As a result, the majority view expects the company to meet or slightly exceed revenue and EPS estimates, with particular attention to qualitative commentary on deposit costs, loan demand, and expense trajectory to gauge the sustainability of current run-rate performance and the visibility of earnings into subsequent quarters.