SpaceX has completed one of the largest initial public offerings in U.S. history, yet this milestone has triggered an unusually stark divide on Wall Street. The valuation chasm among analysts, with targets ranging from $190 per share to a "fair value" of just half the IPO price, highlights fundamental market debates over the commercial logic of this space enterprise.

Bullish Perspective: Confidence in the 'Space + AI' Vision and Market Dominance

Oppenheimer has issued an optimistic outlook, setting a price target of $190. Analysts believe SpaceX possesses breakthrough technological capabilities, framing its valuation rationale as "Starlink providing the cash flow anchor, Starship acting as the cost switch, and space-based AI data centers serving as a long-term call option."

New Street Research also maintains a positive stance, assigning a target price of $165.

Goldman Sachs recently expressed extreme long-term optimism for SpaceX's AI business, projecting total revenue could reach $474 billion by 2030, with AI-related revenue contributing as much as $322 billion.

Venture capitalist Evan Schlossman of Suro Capital noted that the strong opening surge proves robust market demand for iconic firms driving innovation, which, after remaining private for an extended period, have accumulated immense market anticipation.

Seth Hickle, Chief Investment Officer at Mindset Wealth Management, pointed out that demand far exceeds supply. Many investors view investing in SpaceX as "the closest opportunity to investing in railroads during the Industrial Revolution" and are willing to pay a "Musk premium" for it.

Bearish Perspective: Concerns Over Stretched Valuation and Financial Losses

CFRA issued the first major "Sell" rating on the IPO day, with a target price of just $115, representing an approximately 14.8% discount to the offering price. The core rationale is a severely overstretched valuation, with Starlink profits being consumed by the "cash-burning" ventures of xAI and Starship, coupled with a lack of differentiated competitiveness in the AI business.

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens, using a discounted cash flow model, calculated SpaceX's fair value at $780 billion, equating to $60 per share—less than half the IPO price. He suggested the xAI business could become a "value-destructive factor" and estimated only a 7% probability of success for space-based AI data centers.

Aswath Damodaran, a renowned valuation expert from New York University, stated the true valuation should be around $1.3 trillion (approximately $99 per share), deeming the current pricing excessive.

Veteran short-seller Jim Chanos offered a blunt assessment: "No reasonable business assumptions can justify this company being worth $1.75 trillion within five years; this runs on 'hope and dreams'."

Todd Schoenberger, Chief Investment Officer at Crosscheck Management, believes current retail interest is irrationally high. He argues people are essentially "trading" rather than "investing" in SpaceX, attempting to capitalize on the hype premium from news headlines, and questions the sustainability of the price movement in the coming weeks.

Warnings on Trading Structure and Market Risks

JPMorgan Chase warned that the SpaceX listing could create a significant "siphoning effect." Due to forced rebalancing pressures on passive funds, the market might need to drain nearly $950 billion in liquidity from existing tech giants to accommodate SpaceX's index weight, potentially causing sharp adjustments in the three major U.S. stock indices.

Joe Maher, a market economist at Capital Economics, noted that mega-IPOs like SpaceX's will unleash a wave of equity supply. A surge in share issuance is not only a sign of speculative frenzy but also risks overwhelming investor demand with increased supply, thereby depressing overall stock prices.

Columbia Business School professor Shivaram Rajgopal labeled 2026 the "year of the mega-IPO" and cautioned that this may signal the peak of a bubble fueled by low interest rates and unrealistic AI expectations since the financial crisis.

The Motley Fool published criticism, calling the IPO's trading structure "one of the greatest rip-offs of retail investors in history." It highlighted that the extremely low float and changes to index rules are designed to allow insiders to cash out during the August lock-up expiration, leaving retail investors to bear the losses from the lofty valuation.

Corporate Governance Concerns

Danish pension fund AkademikerPension has placed SpaceX on its investment blacklist due to governance issues. Its Chief Investment Officer stated that SpaceX's share structure is "the most management-friendly, most extreme ever in the U.S. public markets," with Musk holding absolute voting control and a lack of independent director mechanisms.

Senator Elizabeth Warren publicly criticized the SEC under the previous administration for approving a "meaningless" IPO, calling on index providers to protect American families' investments and urging the SEC to ensure Musk does not mislead investors.