Abstract

Delek US will report fourth-quarter results on February 27, 2026 Pre-Market.

Market Forecast

Based on company guidance and compiled expectations, Delek US’s current-quarter revenue is forecast at 2.58 billion USD, with EBIT estimated at 51.70 million USD and adjusted EPS estimated at -0.19; year-over-year changes implied by the finance dataset are 0.09% for revenue, 134.97% for EBIT, and 93.16% for EPS. Margin assumptions suggest a modest sequential normalization from last quarter’s exceptional spread-driven outcome; the company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin guidance were not provided in the dataset, so they are omitted. Refining remains the main business, supported by throughput and crack-spread trends, while Logistics offers steadier fee-based cash flow. The most promising segment is Logistics, with revenue of 261.30 million USD last quarter and resilience in fee-based contracts that can offset refinery-cycle volatility; no explicit YoY from the tool was available for this line-item, so growth is qualitatively assessed from recent operating commentary.

Last Quarter Review

Delek US reported last quarter revenue of 2.89 billion USD, gross profit margin of 17.11%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 178.00 million USD, net profit margin of 6.17%, and adjusted EPS of 7.13; year-over-year revenue growth was -5.11%, while adjusted EPS year-over-year growth was 591.72%. Net profit accelerated quarter-on-quarter by 267.29%, reflecting pronounced spread tailwinds and operational execution. The main business was Refining, generating 2.84 billion USD, complemented by Logistics at 261.30 million USD; consolidated “other and eliminations” were -216.40 million USD; YoY breakdown by segment was not explicitly provided by the dataset.

Current Quarter Outlook

Refining

Refining is the largest revenue driver for Delek US and the primary determinant of quarterly earnings variability. The guidance-implied shift from an exceptional prior quarter to a more normalized crack-spread environment suggests EBITDA and margin compression relative to the recent peak. Even with lower implied margins, throughput stability and optimized turnarounds can sustain cash generation, while regional basis support in the Mid-Continent may provide incremental uplift. Catalysts this quarter include diesel and gasoline demand resilience into the late-winter shoulder season, inventory draws that support product pricing, and any differential advantages at Delek US’s systems that allow outperformance versus peers. Risks center on narrower 2-1-1 and 3-2-1 crack spreads, unplanned downtime, and volatility in crude differentials, which could weigh on realized margins and earnings leverage.

Logistics

Logistics stands out as a stabilizing contributor due to fee-based revenue models and long-term contracts that are less exposed to commodity swings. The last quarter recorded 261.30 million USD in Logistics revenue, and the segment offers midstream-like cash flow characteristics that can buffer consolidated results when refining margins retrace. This quarter, the focus is on throughput volumes tied to refinery utilization, tariff escalators, and any expansion projects that add incremental capacity or connectivity. Performance hinges on maintaining service reliability and favorable cost control, enabling high drop-through from incremental volumes. Potential upside could come from higher-than-expected refinery runs that translate into greater logistics throughput, while downside risks include temporary bottlenecks or lower utilizations if refining operations pause for maintenance.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock’s movement is likely to be dictated by the spread trajectory versus expectations, the realized EBIT versus forecast (51.70 million USD), and whether adjusted EPS of -0.19 proves conservative or accurate. Investors will watch sequential margin change from the prior quarter’s 17.11% gross margin and 6.17% net margin to infer cycle normalization; any deviation—positive or negative—will change sentiment quickly. Management commentary on run-rate sustainability, capital allocation, and operational reliability will frame the narrative around forward quarters and shape valuation. The market will also parse the magnitude of quarter-on-quarter net profit change after last quarter’s 267.29% jump, assessing whether momentum persists or moderates.

Analyst Opinions

Among institutional previews tracked in recent weeks, opinions are mixed, with a slight tilt toward cautious positioning in light of a projected negative EPS and lower EBIT versus the prior quarter’s realized level. Commentaries flag the risk of margin normalization after an outsized quarter, and the importance of how winter demand and maintenance schedules shape refinery utilization. Analysts emphasize that fee-based Logistics can mitigate pressure, but the key debate is whether product cracks hold sufficiently to prevent a swing into losses at the consolidated level. In the dominant view, this quarter is seen as a reset from the prior exceptional performance, with eyes on the cadence of spreads, utilization, and operating discipline into spring driving the next leg of earnings stabilization.