A new model released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on Tuesday predicts that the US unemployment rate will remain at 4.3% this month, but indicates an increased probability of unemployment rate rising. The model suggests that the September unemployment rate, to be released on October 3rd, is more likely to increase rather than decrease.

The Chicago Fed has constructed this forecasting model by comprehensively utilizing multiple alternative real-time labor market data indicators, including general expectations data for unemployment rates. Other indicators used for estimation include: the ratio of initial unemployment insurance claims to unemployment insurance-covered employment, Google Trends data, job search activity data, and survey dates. The forecast is updated twice monthly—approximately two weeks before the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report is released, and on the eve of the report's publication.