The third day of the Pro Farmer crop tour has finally reached the crucial production hubs of Iowa and Illinois, and the findings echo the weaker conditions observed in the previous two days, though these regions performed marginally better.

This has continued to underpin strength in both CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal, yet the pace of gains is narrowing further. The Pro Farmer survey on the third day assessed corn and soybean samples across western Iowa and Illinois, two of the nation's core agricultural zones. Western Iowa was split into three districts: Northwest 1, West 4, and Southwest 7. For 2026, the corn yields in these districts came in at 191.80 bushels per acre, 189.73 bushels per acre, and 190.59 bushels per acre, respectively. Compared to 2025 figures of 197.89, 207.25, and 195.03 bushels per acre, all three areas saw a decline. The Northwest district was above the average, the West district slightly below, and the Southwest district was largely flat.

For soybeans, using 3x3 foot square pod counts, the 2026 readings for Northwest 1, West 4, and Southwest 7 were 1269.26, 1273.77, and 1557.59 pods, respectively, versus 1279.25, 1376.15, and 1562.54 pods in 2025. The Northwest and West districts saw fewer pods year-on-year, while the Southwest district was nearly unchanged. However, when measured against the 2023-2025 three-year average, all three districts posted pod counts above that historical benchmark.

Illinois reported a 2026 corn yield of 184.19 bushels per acre, based on 217 samples. This is a sharp drop from 199.57 bushels per acre in 2025 and the 199.15 bushels per acre three-year average. The USDA's official 2026 estimate stands at 212 bushels per acre, with a 2025 final of 214 bushels per acre, making the field data significantly lower than last year, the three-year mean, and the USDA's earlier projections. For soybeans in Illinois, the 3x3 foot square pod count came in at 1430.37 for 2026, from 215 samples, compared to 1479.22 in 2025 and a 1389.65 three-year average. While pods are down from last year, they remain above the recent average.

Comparing the two regions, western Iowa's corn yields, while lower than last year, are not far off the three-year average, and soybean pod counts are trending positively. In contrast, Illinois shows a significant drop in field corn yields, creating a wide gap with the USDA's optimistic outlook, though its soybean performance is passable. Overall, weather has had a more pronounced impact on corn yields in these two key states, while soybeans have been relatively less affected. With CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal gaining less ground, market participants should watch for further direction from tomorrow's tour report and be cautious of a potential pullback once the yield speculation narrative concludes.

Data sourced from Pro Farmer and COFCO Futures Research Institute.