China Post Securities released a research report stating that POP MART (09992), as a leader in China's trendy toy industry, possesses strong capabilities in IP acquisition, incubation, and operation. The firm remains optimistic about the company's medium-to-long-term value.
The report forecasts POP MART's revenue growth for 2025-2027 at 172%, 38%, and 36% (all upward revisions), with net profit attributable to shareholders growing at 251%, 42%, and 39% (also upward revisions). EPS is projected at RMB 8.16, RMB 11.59, and RMB 16.16 per share, respectively, with current P/E ratios of 26x, 18x, and 13x. The firm maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock.
**Full-Year Outlook: Peak Season Boosts Optimism** Q4 is traditionally POP MART's peak sales season, with Halloween, Black Friday, and Christmas driving strong demand for gifts and trendy toys in overseas markets, particularly in Europe and the U.S. The company's Halloween-themed "Why So Serious" series of blind-box vinyl plush keychains saw robust sales in early October. The report expects further sales growth with the launch of new holiday-themed products.
**Medium-to-Long Term: Diversification and Platform Expansion** Over the past decade, POP MART has built an integrated platform covering the entire trendy toy industry chain, including artist collaboration, IP incubation, consumer engagement, cultural promotion, and innovative business ventures. In 2024, the company expanded into accessories and building blocks, followed by magazines, doll clothing, and gold products in 2025. Recent launches include pure gold collectibles, reflecting steady progress in its diversified platform strategy.
**Growth Drivers: Internationalization and New Product Launches** 1) **Global Expansion**: POP MART plans to increase its overseas business share in 2025, focusing on flagship stores in key cities across the U.S. and Europe, as well as tourist destinations. The company will also extend its domestic e-commerce success to overseas markets, with live-streaming expected to account for over 20% of overseas e-commerce sales. To optimize costs, regional warehouses in Southeast Asia and Europe are planned, potentially cutting logistics expenses by 50% and improving restocking efficiency.
2) **Innovation**: Staying true to its IP-centric strategy, POP MART will continue introducing new product categories while maintaining a disciplined SKU approach. The 2025 SKU count is expected to remain below 2024 levels, with mature categories tightly controlled and new categories refined post-trial.
3) **Future Plans**: By 2025, POP MART aims to open 100 overseas stores, with international revenue surpassing 50% of total sales. The North American market is projected to match the scale of its 2020 China sales. Regional warehouses in Southeast Asia and Europe are expected to lower operating costs, supporting sustained net margin growth.