Dear investors, the Hong Kong grey market session on September 28 delivered a chilly blow to the pre-holiday IPO market ahead of the National Day break.

Of the four new listings trading in the grey market that day, three fell below their offer prices while one advanced. Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.,Ltd. (09607.HK) closed the grey market at HK$36.620, down 16.77% from its offer price of HK$41.50, making it the weakest performer of the session.

Kinwong Electronic (03228.HK) closed the grey market at HK$65.450, down 6.34% from its offer price of HK$69.88. Robotechnik (03757.HK) closed at HK$428.000, down 1.83% from its offer price of HK$436. Benmo Technology (06731.HK) was the sole gainer, closing the grey market at HK$22.340, up 3.43% from its offer price of HK$21.60.

Calculated on a per-board-lot basis, Red Avenue New Materials posted a book loss of about HK$488 per lot (100 shares per lot), Kinwong Electronic lost about HK$443 per lot (100 shares per lot), Robotechnik lost about HK$400 per lot (50 shares per lot), and Benmo Technology gained about HK$74 per lot (100 shares per lot). The divergence in the grey market may have set the stage for their first-day performances on September 29.

Grey Market Split: Three Declines and One Gain May Reflect Sharply Divided Sentiment

Red Avenue New Materials' 16.77% grey market drop may be the most noteworthy signal of the day. The company is a domestic photoresist "barrier-breaker," potentially ranking first among local suppliers of semiconductor photoresists in China, with ArF photoresist volumes possibly up nearly 300% year-on-year in the first half. Yet the 16.77% grey market decline may reflect market concerns over the narrowing of its A/H share discount and near-term earnings pressure.

Kinwong Electronic's 6.34% grey market drop may be tied to the company's "revenue growth without profit growth" profile. Revenue rose 20.92% in 2025, but non-GAAP net profit may have fallen 3.15%; net profit may have dropped 7.38% in the first half of 2026. Fourteen cornerstone investors including Zhongji Innolight locked up 35.2% of the offering, but in a market environment where the break-issue rate runs as high as 75%, the "price support" effect of cornerstone lock-ups may need to be viewed with caution.

Robotechnik's 1.83% grey market decline was the smallest of the four. The company ranks first globally in silicon photonics equipment with a 20.5% market share, but its RMB1.661 billion in goodwill may carry impairment risk, and its photovoltaic business revenue may have declined for three consecutive years. The HK$436 offer price and HK$22,019.85 entry fee may pose a relatively high threshold for retail participation. The limited grey market decline may indicate the market still gives some recognition to its scarcity in "AI computing power equipment."

Benmo Technology's 3.43% grey market gain was the only bright spot among the four. The company is the fourth IPO from the Li Zexiang ecosystem and may rank first in China's consumer robot direct-drive power module industry by 2025 revenue, with a market share possibly reaching 61.1%. Its HK$2,181.78 entry fee is on the lower end among recent new listings, potentially making it more suitable for small-capital participation.

September 29 First-Day Forecast: The Three New Listings May Diverge Sharply

Based on grey market performance and the market environment, the first-day performances of the three new listings on September 29 may diverge.

Red Avenue New Materials: A 16.77% grey market drop may put considerable pressure on its first-day open. Its fundamentals may offer a safety cushion from an A/H discount of about 47.8%, but the precedent of Star Ring Technology breaking issue despite a 63% discount may suggest that discounts are not a decisive factor. Some netizens argue that the long-term value of the photoresist sector may not be fully recognized by the market, but short-term sentiment may dominate pricing.

Kinwong Electronic: A 6.34% grey market drop may extend into a weak first day. The company's 14 cornerstone investors locked up 35.2%, but net profit may fall 7.38% in the first half of 2026, operating cash flow may drop 15.65%, and long-term borrowings may surge 556.17% — these figures may leave the market doubtful about its short-term earnings quality. Some netizens argue that Zhongji Innolight's participation as a cornerstone investor may reflect industrial synergy value, but in the current market environment, backing from industrial capital may struggle to fully offset the suppression of market sentiment.

Benmo Technology: A 3.43% grey market gain may make it the most certain first-day performer of the three. The label of being the fourth IPO from the Li Zexiang ecosystem, a 61.1% niche market share, and a low HK$2,181.78 entry fee may provide some support for its first-day performance. Some netizens argue that sentiment in the robotics sector may still be elevated, and Benmo Technology's small-cap plus low-entry-fee characteristics may make it a "preferred target" for retail funds.

Huanchuang Technology and Essence Computing: Grey Market at "0.000" May Indicate Data Delay

Screenshots show that the grey market data for Huanchuang Technology (06802.HK) and Essence Computing (01256.HK) both read 0.000, possibly because grey market trading had not yet begun or the data had not updated. Huanchuang Technology has an offer price of HK$58.85 and an entry fee of HK$5,944.35, with margin subscription potentially oversubscribed by more than 82 times, making it one of the hottest recent new listings by margin demand. Essence Computing is the "first RISC-V stock," a second entrepreneurial venture by Wang Dongsheng, and may have passed its hearing but not yet launched its offering. The grey market performance of these two targets may need to wait for subsequent data updates before a judgment can be made.

Netizen Strategy Reference (Does Not Constitute Any Investment Advice; Investing Carries Risk, Enter the Market with Caution)

The "three declines and one gain" divergence in the September 28 grey market may provide an important reference for first-day performances on September 29. In the current Hong Kong IPO environment where the break-issue rate runs as high as 75%, grey market performance may have become a "leading indicator" for first-day trading.

Netizen hot comments: "Red Avenue New Materials fell 16.77% in the grey market, a drop that may have exceeded market expectations. The photoresist story is good, but the market may be more focused on near-term earnings delivery." "Benmo Technology is the only one in the red. Li Zexiang's influence plus a low entry fee plus the robotics sector may make it the most 'resilient' target in this batch of new listings." "Kinwong Electronic's 6.34% drop is no surprise. Revenue growth without profit growth plus a high debt ratio — in the current market environment, even cornerstone lock-ups may not withstand selling pressure."

Project Details Table

Stock Name | Code | Offer Price | Grey Market Price | Grey Market Change | Shares per Lot | Entry Fee | Approximate Loss/Gain per Lot

Benmo Technology | 06731.HK | HK$21.60 | HK$22.340 | +3.43% | 100 shares | HK$2,181.78 | +HK$74

Robotechnik | 03757.HK | HK$436.00 | HK$428.000 | -1.83% | 50 shares | HK$22,019.85 | -HK$400

Kinwong Electronic | 03228.HK | HK$69.88 | HK$65.450 | -6.34% | 100 shares | HK$7,058.47 | -HK$443

Red Avenue New Materials | 09607.HK | HK$41.50 | HK$36.620 | -16.77% | 100 shares | HK$4,444.38 | -HK$488

Huanchuang Technology | 06802.HK | HK$58.85 | 0.000 | To be updated | 100 shares | HK$5,944.35 | —

Essence Computing | 01256.HK | To be determined | 0.000 | To be updated | To be determined | To be determined | —