On March 25, ATFX noted that the 48-hour deadline previously announced by Trump had passed, but instead of a military strike, the situation shifted toward peace talks initiated by Trump himself. Trump claimed to have engaged in two days of discussions with an undisclosed Iranian figure and stated that due to the relatively smooth progress of the talks, further military action against Iran would be halted.
Trump stated on Tuesday that the United States and Iran are "currently negotiating," with several U.S. officials, including Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio, reportedly involved. However, nearly all Iranian officials have denied any direct or indirect negotiations with the U.S., making Trump’s statements appear questionable.
Logically, if Trump were to disclose the identity or position of the Iranian counterpart, it could potentially endanger that individual from hardline factions within Iran. Therefore, withholding the negotiator’s identity may serve as a protective measure. As President of the United States, it is unlikely that Trump would fabricate such claims; secret negotiations may indeed be underway, though no concrete outcomes have been reached yet.
Despite the lack of confirmation from Iran, financial markets have already reacted. Since March 23, the international gold price has rebounded from $4,098 to $4,602. Over the same period, international oil prices have fallen from above $100 to around $83. The rise in gold and decline in oil suggest that market participants are optimistic about the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Should Iran reopen the strait, global oil supply constraints would ease significantly, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 2026.
A successful negotiation would likely lead to lower oil prices, Fed rate cuts, and higher gold prices. Conversely, failed talks could drive oil prices higher, prompt tighter monetary policy from the Fed, and depress gold. The market currently appears to be betting on the first scenario. However, until Iran acknowledges the peace talks or Trump provides definitive evidence of progress, this optimism may prove premature.
In terms of market performance, gold formed two notable peaks on January 29 and March 2, at $5,597 and $5,419 respectively. These successively lower highs suggest a potential double-top or head-and-shoulders pattern, indicating a possible shift from a bullish to a bearish medium- to long-term trend. Since early March, the downward trend has remained within a defined channel. This Monday, the price briefly broke below the channel’s lower boundary but closed back inside. Barring unexpected news, prices may continue to move toward the upper channel line.