International gold prices continue to fluctuate. In early Asian trading on Friday (Beijing time, June 12), spot gold, influenced by news such as an easing of Middle East tensions, staged a strong rebound of over 3% after approaching the $4,000 per ounce level on Thursday, climbing back above $4,200 per ounce. However, taking a longer view, the gold price has retreated by nearly 28% from the all-time high of $5,598.75 per ounce set in January. The main Shanghai gold futures contract has fallen below 900 yuan per gram, erasing all its gains for the year.
As gold enters a downward trend, market bearish sentiment is simultaneously intensifying.
In a report dated Monday, June 8, Citi analysts including Kenny Hu lowered their three-month gold price target from $4,300 per ounce to $4,000. Citi warned that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists until the end of summer, a decline in gold purchases could push prices down to $3,500 per ounce.
Furthermore, Commerzbank recently revised down its year-end 2026 gold price forecast from $5,000 per ounce to $4,800 per ounce. However, the bank maintained its year-end 2027 price forecast of $5,200 per ounce. Beyond the bearish outlook on gold prices themselves, due to its weakened investment appeal and disappearance of profitable effects, target prices for gold-related companies are also being lowered.
On the trading front, according to data from options trading platforms like ThinkOrSwim, the GLD options market saw approximately $200 million in premium traded this Wednesday (June 10), with about $130 million related to put options. Notably, the second most actively traded contract was a put option expiring in June 2028 with a strike price of $240, quoted at $11.50 per contract. This represents a deep bearish bet, indicating traders expect GLD to decline by another roughly 40% over the next two years.
Industry analysis suggests the current decline in gold prices results from a confluence of factors including the fading of geopolitical risk premiums, central bank selling, and rising expectations for interest rate hikes. In the short term, the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting in June and the trajectory of the Middle East situation will be key variables determining whether gold prices can stabilize.