On February 17, the current gold market is showing a consolidation pattern around the $5,000 milestone, but this is by no means the end of the upward trend. EasyMarkets states that as global macroeconomic dynamics undergo a profound restructuring, gold is preparing for a new wave of breakthroughs, with the target price for the second quarter raised to $5,800. Addressing market concerns about gold prices peaking, analysts believe that although the price has retreated from the previous high of $5,600, the fundamental logic supporting this bull market is fundamentally different from historical cyclical peaks.
With the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path for 2026 becoming increasingly clear, EasyMarkets anticipates that expectations of a 25-basis-point reduction each in March and June will drive real interest rates consistently lower, providing solid support for the price of gold.
Simultaneously, structural transformations within the global financial system are acting as an "accelerator" for gold prices. Traditional risk-free assets are facing a severe crisis of confidence, as soaring debt levels continue to widen long-term bond premiums. Against this backdrop, gold's status as the "ultimate insurance policy" is becoming increasingly secure. Until structural fiscal issues in major economies are resolved, the strategic value of gold as a transitional asset will continue to be realized.
Regarding capital flows, an explosion in global investment demand during 2026 is expected to take over from central bank purchasing. EasyMarkets indicates that total holdings in gold ETFs are projected to surpass 4,800 tons this year, with share growth in emerging markets being particularly critical.
Given that gold ETFs currently account for less than 3% of mainstream investment portfolios, even a very small-scale asset rotation from bonds to gold could exert a significant leveraged upward effect on its price.
Concerning silver, which belongs to the same precious metals sector, analysts believe its performance will continue to be anchored to gold. However, influenced by industrial demand's sensitivity to high prices, silver's performance in 2026 may slightly lag behind that of gold. EasyMarkets concludes that in a turbulent financial environment, gold's significance as a store of value remains substantial, and investors should focus on the long-term safe-haven value it demonstrates amid price fluctuations.