ADM Slashes 2025 Profit Outlook as Crush Margins Decline, Shares Drop 9% Premarket

Deep News

Nov 04

Focus: Q3 2025 U.S. Earnings Season Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) revised down its full-year 2025 profit forecast on Tuesday, citing pressure from shrinking crush margins and delayed U.S. biofuel policy decisions. The grain trader’s shares fell nearly 9% in premarket trading.

Global agricultural processors like ADM face mounting challenges, including commodity cycle volatility, weak crop prices, and energy policy uncertainties.

The U.S. biofuel policy delay—particularly regarding Renewable Fuel Standard blending mandates—has dampened demand for soybean oil and other feedstocks.

This pressured crush and refining margins in ADM’s Ag Services & Oilseeds segment, driving a 21% drop in operating profit to $379 million.

Trade tensions from former President Donald Trump’s tariffs disrupted flows, including China’s suspension of U.S. soybean purchases, pushing crop prices to multi-year lows.

However, ADM expects 2026 policy clarity and improved global trade to support growth.

"We anticipate biofuel policy finalization and trade developments will provide demand signals," said CEO Juan Luciano.

ADM now projects 2025 adjusted EPS at $3.25–$3.50, down from prior ~$4.00 guidance and below analysts’ $3.79 consensus.

LSEG data shows Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.92 (ending Sept. 30), beating the $0.85 estimate.

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