NVIDIA's upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report is expected to surpass expectations once again, but investor focus has shifted further into the future. The current stock price largely reflects growth potential through 2026; further gains will depend on the company's visibility for 2027 revenue.
According to analysis, Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider anticipates NVIDIA's Q4 revenue will exceed market expectations by approximately $20 billion, with the firm's Q1 revenue forecast sitting 8% above Wall Street consensus. However, he noted that a $20 billion beat might merely "meet expectations," and that guidance for the next 12-18 months will be the true driver for the stock. Goldman maintains a Buy rating and a $250 price target, implying 43.5% upside from the current price of $174.19.
Specifically, Goldman forecasts Q4 revenue of $67.34 billion (versus consensus of $65.64 billion) and adjusted EPS of $1.59 (versus $1.52 consensus). For Q1, it expects revenue of $76.84 billion (versus $71.15 billion consensus) and adjusted EPS of $1.80 (versus $1.65 consensus). The Data Center segment remains the core engine, with Goldman projecting Q4 revenue of $61.3 billion and Q1 revenue reaching $71.1 billion.
More striking is the divergence in valuation. Goldman's EPS forecasts for fiscal 2026 and 2027 are 17% and 29% above market consensus, respectively. This suggests either significantly greater optimism about growth than the broader market or a substantial pricing error.
NVIDIA has previously outlined a long-term target for Data Center revenue to reach $500 billion. Investors now seek clarity on the timeline for achieving this figure, the composition of customers, and the breakdown between compute and networking businesses.
Starting from this already elevated base, Goldman believes any positive commentary from NVIDIA regarding 2027 revenue visibility could act as a catalyst for the stock. According to Goldman's model, Data Center revenue will reach $357.3 billion in fiscal 2027, 16% above consensus, and grow further to $483.9 billion in fiscal 2028, 22% above consensus.
The pace of product transitions is another critical variable. Goldman anticipates the Rubin GPU will begin shipments in Q3, ramping significantly in Q4 and beyond. The model suggests Rubin will constitute the majority of revenue by fiscal Q1 2027, while the share from Blackwell declines rapidly. This fast iteration cycle represents both NVIDIA's technological moat and a test of its supply chain execution capabilities.
Demand from non-traditional customers is another area of focus. OpenAI is projected to begin large-scale deployment in the second half of 2026, targeting approximately 26GW of computing capacity built over 4-5 years. While 2026 procurement remains small relative to this long-term goal, any initial execution signs are noteworthy.
Goldman notes OpenAI is collaborating with NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD on its deployment. Beyond OpenAI, Anthropic has raised its calendar 2026 revenue expectations by 20%, and sovereign AI deployment activity remains strong. The extent to which demand from these non-hyperscaler customers can offset volatility from traditional clients is a source of uncertainty for 2027 revenue forecasts.
Quantitative data on increased capital expenditure by US hyperscalers for 2026 and 2027, specific details on non-hyperscaler demand in 2026, and the performance of large language models trained on NVIDIA's latest chips—these three categories of information, expected to be released throughout the first half of the year, will form a potential catalyst path for the stock. The GTC conference in March will be a key event to watch.
Competition is intensifying, but the CUDA ecosystem remains a barrier. Google's TPU v7, AMD's MI455X, and Microsoft's Maia 200 are expected to narrow the raw performance gap with NVIDIA's products. The increasing efforts by hyperscalers to develop custom ASICs pose a potential threat to NVIDIA's market share.
Goldman expects NVIDIA to emphasize the competitive advantage of its CUDA ecosystem. This software platform, built over many years, benefits from strong developer network effects. NVIDIA's recent deal with Groq and its implications for inference costs are also noteworthy—the inference market may grow faster than the training market, and the competitive landscape in this segment is not yet fully defined.
The China market could provide additional revenue contribution before 2027, though the specific scale and timing require further disclosure from management.
Goldman's $250 price target is based on a 30x P/E ratio applied to a normalized EPS of $8.25. This implies NVIDIA can maintain high profitability even if the growth rate of AI infrastructure spending slows.
The current stock price implies a P/E of about 20x for fiscal 2027 (based on Goldman's forecast) and approximately 14x for fiscal 2028. If one accepts Goldman's growth projections, the valuation does not appear excessive. The central question, however, is the probability of Goldman's forecasts materializing—the 29% EPS upside requires demand to consistently exceed expectations or for gross margins to remain around the 75% level.
Key risks include a slowdown in AI infrastructure spending, market share erosion from custom ASICs and AMD, margin compression due to competition, and supply chain constraints. Goldman's model assumes operating margins will stabilize in the 67-69% range for fiscal 2027-2029, requiring the company to maintain cost control and pricing power even as it scales.