In the primary market last week, the issuance scales of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds were 207 billion yuan, 74.8 billion yuan, and 169.8 billion yuan respectively, with net financing amounts of -299.2 billion yuan, 65.6 billion yuan, and 41.1 billion yuan. The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds reached 278.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of 49 billion yuan. Two new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 2.18 billion yuan.
In the secondary market, yields on interest rate bonds declined last week, with government bonds and secondary perpetual bonds performing relatively well. Key influencing factors included the implementation of structural interest rate cuts, increased central bank injections, and fluctuating stock markets.
Liquidity tracking showed a net injection of 812.8 billion yuan into the open market last week. The central bank oversubscribed by 300 billion yuan in rolling over a 6-month outright reverse repo, leading to a slight easing of funding conditions.
On the policy and fundamental front, the central bank lowered interest rates on structural monetary policy tools, and the policy for individual income tax refunds on home swaps was extended for a second time. December's export and financial data exceeded expectations, although the M1 growth rate continued to decline.
In overseas markets, Middle East tensions continued to evolve, US core inflation cooled, and Fed Chair Powell acknowledged receiving a subpoena from the US Department of Justice. The US dollar appreciated slightly last week, while US stocks fell and US Treasury yields rose.
In the equity market, A-share indices experienced high volatility last week, with the Wind All-A Index closing up 0.49%. Electronics and non-ferrous metals led the gains as capital flowed back into sectors with both solid earnings and favorable growth prospects. Trading volume expanded significantly, with a daily average of 3.47 trillion yuan last week, representing a weekly increase of 613.11 billion yuan. As of January 15, 2026, the overall A-share margin balance stood at 2,701.216 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 98.073 billion yuan from January 8.
Regarding bond market strategy outlook, policy support for a strong start to the "16th Five-Year Plan" period continues to advance. This round of monetary policy primarily focuses on the quantitative and pricing adjustments of structural tools, potentially indicating a reduced likelihood of comprehensive policy measures in the near term. Combined with the increased volume of outright reverse repo operations this month and the central bank's clear stance to "enhance liquidity injection efforts," the current policy emphasis remains on maintaining reasonably ample liquidity to stabilize market expectations and keep overall interest rates relatively steady. Overall, the bond market continues to exhibit a pattern where long-end rate declines face limitations, while the short to medium end shows more certainty; stable funding expectations may support spread product trading. In the next phase, policy focus will gradually shift from monetary policy to local government meetings, requiring close attention to potential expectation gaps in 2026 growth targets set by various regions and corresponding trading opportunities. Convertible bond indices have risen; over the long term, convertibles represent an optimal choice for allocating to equity assets, but short-term caution is warranted against overheating and valuation bubble risks, especially during the pre-disclosure window for financial reports at the end of January, which could significantly amplify volatility in small and mid-cap stocks.
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