Bernstein SocGen Group maintained its Outperform rating on Adidas, assigning a target price of EUR 245 for the German-listed shares and USD 132.50 for the U.S. over-the-counter shares.

After attending Adidas' recent Innovation Day held at its headquarters, Bernstein stated that the most notable aspect of the company is not simply the hot sales of any single product, but rather that its decentralized operating model is taking effect, enabling each region to respond more quickly to local demand and capture growth opportunities across different markets.

Decentralized Operations Are Translating into Market Share Gains

Bernstein pointed out that Adidas has achieved market share gains in all major regions over the past two years. A key reason behind this is that the company has pushed more design, supply, and replenishment decisions down to the regional and market level, allowing teams to adjust products and inventory more quickly based on local consumer demand.

This model reduces the response lag caused by globally unified decision-making and also enables Adidas to configure products tailored to popular trends, price ranges, and consumer preferences in different regions. Bernstein believes that this operational shift is becoming an important foundation for the company's growth, rather than merely a short-term benefit from a product cycle.

Product Line No Longer Dependent on a Single Hit

Bernstein also specifically emphasized the breadth of Adidas' product pipeline this time. The company currently maintains a relatively balanced product mix across both Performance and Lifestyle categories, covering different usage scenarios, price ranges, and design styles.

This means that Adidas' growth logic is gradually shifting from relying on a few popular shoe models to a broader product matrix. For a sporting goods company, this is especially important because single trend-driven products tend to have strong cyclicality. If growth can be driven jointly by multiple categories such as running, football, training, and lifestyle, revenue sustainability is typically stronger.

High Single-Digit Growth in 2027 Remains the Core of Market Debate

Adidas management continues to maintain confidence in achieving high single-digit percentage growth by 2027, which Bernstein views as the most closely watched point of contention among investors currently. The supporting factors cited by the company mainly include three aspects: a still-strong product pipeline, relatively low market share in North America and China, and sufficiently broad product coverage.

Particularly in North America and China, the relatively low existing share means the company still has room for further expansion. If product and channel execution remain stable, both markets have the potential to become important sources of subsequent growth. Therefore, Bernstein has not changed its long-term judgment due to the stock's weak performance so far this year.

The Biggest Risk Is Concentrated in the First Half of 2027

However, investors still have clear doubts about Adidas' growth path in 2027. The biggest concern is concentrated in the first half of 2027. On one hand, the company will face a high year-over-year comparison base; on the other hand, if the demand environment in the sportswear industry weakens further, or if industry promotional intensity extends from the second half of 2026 into 2027, both Adidas' sales growth and profit margins could come under pressure.

This means that even if there is still an opportunity to achieve high single-digit growth for the full year, the year-over-year performance in the first half could be relatively volatile.

Several Institutions Recently Raised or Maintained Positive Ratings

Recently, multiple institutions have maintained positive assessments of Adidas. Piper Sandler raised its target price from EUR 170 to EUR 200 and maintained its Overweight rating; StoneX also maintained its Buy rating and EUR 200 target price. JPMorgan resumed coverage of Adidas, giving it an Overweight rating and a EUR 230 target price, and expects the company to achieve 11% revenue growth in fiscal year 2026 with an EBIT margin of 9.4%.

Overall, the core logic behind Bernstein's decision to maintain its rating this time is that Adidas' current growth no longer depends solely on a single product cycle, but is supported jointly by more flexible localized operations, a relatively complete product pipeline, and market share in North America and China that still has room for improvement. What truly needs to be verified is whether these advantages can help the company navigate the high comparison base in the first half of 2027 and potential industry promotional pressure, and ultimately deliver on the high single-digit growth target set by management.