Gold Stocks Under Pressure as Middle East Conflict Fuels Inflation Concerns

Stock News
3 hours ago

Gold stocks faced downward pressure in Hong Kong trading. At the time of writing, ZIJIN GOLD INTL (02259) fell 4.8% to HK$172.7, LINGBAO GOLD (03330) dropped 4.52% to HK$25.36, and SD GOLD (01787) declined 3.07% to HK$32.18. Market attention remains focused on developments in the Middle East. On April 16, the U.S. President announced that Lebanon and Israel had reached a ten-day ceasefire agreement, with Israel agreeing to the truce but stating it would not withdraw troops from southern Lebanon. The President also indicated that the next meeting between the U.S. and Iran could occur this weekend. Furthermore, the President of the New York Fed stated that the Middle East conflict is already increasing inflationary pressures, while uncertainty about the outlook limits the guidance the Federal Reserve can provide on future interest rate policy. A Federal Reserve Governor noted that, given inflation's persistence beyond expectations, he might further reduce his expectations for the number of future interest rate cuts. Analysis from CITIC Futures suggests that based on the market's reaction to this round of geopolitical tensions, gold has not significantly outperformed risk assets. Instead, it declined alongside U.S. stocks during the escalation phase of the Iran conflict, indicating that the current market pricing for gold is no longer solely based on traditional safe-haven logic but has shifted more towards the framework of inflation, interest rates, and liquidity. If the conflict escalates further, an energy shock could push inflation expectations higher. This, by increasing global bond yields and strengthening central banks' cautious stance, could create a countervailing constraint on gold. Conversely, if the conflict eases, a reduction in risk premium would similarly weaken the momentum for chasing gold's gains.

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